[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 December 16 issued 2330 UT on 15 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Fri Dec 16 10:30:32 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec: Very low
Flares: B class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 15 Dec UT and
it is expected to remain very low during the next 3 days. New
AR 2618 is located in the NW quadrant and it has been relatively
quiet. The daily sunspot number is currently only 8. GONG Hydrogen
alpha telescopes recorded a Disappearing Solar Filament (DSF)
in the NW quadrant during 19-20 UT. Small equatorial coronal
hole CH 778 may become geoeffective today, 16 Dec. CH 779 is
approaching the solar meridian and is expected to impact Earth
next week. The solar wind speed declined during 15 Dec and is
currently about 380 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF has been about
3 nT and the Bz component has been fluctuating mostly in the
range -2 nT to +3 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11211111
Cocos Island 1 02110000
Darwin 2 11210110
Townsville 3 11211111
Learmonth 4 12221110
Alice Springs 2 11210010
Norfolk Island 2 11110012
Gingin 2 11111110
Camden 3 11211111
Canberra 3 11211011
Launceston 4 12211112
Hobart 3 11211011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00110000
Casey 13 33441122
Mawson 5 12221121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1001 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Dec 6 Quiet
18 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Australian region and planetary geomagnetic indices
were mostly in the range 0 to 1 during 15 Dec UT. The solar wind
speed declined to about 380 km/s during 15 Dec. The solar wind
speed may increase during 16-17 Dec due to the influence of CH
778. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet with
the possibility of unsettled intervals during the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Poor-normal Poor-fair Poor-normal
17 Dec Poor-normal Poor-fair Poor-normal
18 Dec Poor-normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
in the Southern Hemisphere and near normal in the Northern Hemisphere
during 15 Dec UT. Similar conditions are expected today, 16 UT.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Dec -22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Dec -12 0 to 25% below predicted monthly values
17 Dec -5 0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
18 Dec 0 0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
throughout the Australian region during 15 Dec UT. Local daily
T indices ranged between -43 at Norfolk Island and +2 at Perth.
Depressed conditions are likely to continue in coming days. Lowering
the operating frequency to maintain contact may result in propagation
via sporadic E layers when present.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 484 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 122000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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