[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 December 16 issued 2331 UT on 14 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Thu Dec 15 10:31:03 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 14 Dec UT and
it is expected to remain very low during the next 3 days. AR
2617 is located on the NW limb and will soon disappear from view.
The daily sunspot number is currently only 5. GONG Hydrogen alpha
images show a new significant solar filament located in the NW
quadrant. Small equatorial coronal hole CH 778 may become geoeffective
late today, 15 Dec, or during 16 Dec. The solar wind speed declined
during 14 Dec and is currently about 450 km/s. The magnitude
of the IMF has been about 4 nT and the Bz component has been
fluctuating mostly in the range -2 nT to +4 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 10111111
Cocos Island 1 00111110
Darwin 2 10011112
Townsville 3 11111111
Learmonth 3 11121111
Alice Springs 1 10110011
Norfolk Island 2 00011021
Gingin 2 11020011
Camden 3 10111112
Canberra 1 10110011
Hobart 2 11110011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 01010011
Casey 13 34431122
Mawson 11 33332131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1001 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Dec 4 Quiet
16 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Australian region and planetary geomagnetic indices
were mostly in the range 0 to 1 during 14 Dec UT. The solar wind
speed declined to about 450 km/s during 14 Dec. The solar wind
speed may increase late today, 15 Dec, or during 16 Dec due to
the influence of CH 778. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet during 15 Dec, with the possibility of unsettled
intervals during late 15 Dec and during 16 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Poor-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Poor-normal Poor-fair
16 Dec Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
17 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
to near normal in the Southern Hemisphere and near normal in
the Northern Hemisphere during 14 Dec UT. Conditions are expected
to trend towards predicted monthly values during the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Dec 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Dec 0 0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
16 Dec 5 0 to 15% below predicted monthly values
17 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation strengthened
throughout the Australian region during 14 Dec UT. They were
enhanced at some low latitude locations. Local daily T indices
were 39 at Cocos Island and 29 at Darwin, but only -34 at Norfolk
Island. Conditions are expected to trend towards predicted monthly
values during the next 3 days. Mid-latitude sporadic E layers
are prevalent on an almost daily basis: propagation will often
be via sporadic E when using lower frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 534 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 119000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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