[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 December 16 issued 2330 UT on 13 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Wed Dec 14 10:30:28 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: 071/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 070/13 070/13 070/13
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 13 Dec UT and
it is expected to remain very low during the next 3 days. There
is a small chance of a C class flare. AR 2617 is the only active
region on the visible solar disk and is rotating towards the
NW limb. GONG Hydrogen alpha images show minor, stable filaments.
An Earthward directed solar eruption is unlikely during the next
3 days. Small equatorial coronal hole CH 778 has crossed the
solar meridian into the western hemisphere and may become geoeffective
during 16 Dec. The solar wind speed remained at about 520 km/s
during 13 Dec and is expected to decline during 14-15 Dec. The
magnitude of the IMF is currently about 4 nT and the Bz component
has been mostly weakly northward.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 21112111
Cocos Island 2 11111101
Darwin 3 11112101
Townsville 4 21112111
Learmonth 4 21122111
Alice Springs 3 21112110
Norfolk Island 2 11111011
Gingin 4 22112111
Camden 3 11112111
Canberra 3 21111011
Hobart 4 21212111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 11111000
Casey 12 34332212
Mawson 10 33123123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 005
Planetary 005
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 005
Planetary 004 2310 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Dec 5 Quiet
15 Dec 4 Quiet
16 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Australian region and planetary geomagnetic indices
were in the range 0 to 2 during 13 Dec UT. The solar wind speed
remained above 500 km/s during 13 Dec and is expected to decline
during 14-15 Dec. The solar wind speed might increase during
16 Dec due to the influence of CH 778. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be quiet during 14-15 Dec, becoming unsettled
during 16 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
15 Dec Fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
16 Dec Fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
in the Southern Hemisphere and mildly depressed in the Northern
Hemisphere during 13 Dec UT. Conditions are expected to trend
towards predicted monthly values during the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Dec -19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Dec -10 0 to 30% below predicted monthly values
15 Dec -5 0 to 25% below predicted monthly values
16 Dec 0 0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 66 was issued on 12 December
and is current for 12-14 Dec. Conditions for HF radio wave propagation
were depressed at all latitudes in the Australian region during
13 Dec UT. Local daily T indices ranged between -31 at Darwin
and Norfolk Island to -1 at Niue. Conditions are expected to
trend towards predicted monthly values during the next 3 days.
HF users are advised to use frequencies lower than the predicted
monthly values. Mid-latitude sporadic E layers are prevalent
on an almost daily basis.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 526 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 119000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list