[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 December 16 issued 2334 UT on 12 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 13 10:34:14 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec: Very low
Flares: B class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 071/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 070/13 075/13 075/13
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 12 Dec UT and
it is expected to remain very low during the next 3 days. There
is a small chance of a C class flare. AR 2617 is the only active
region on the visible solar disk. SOHO LASCO coronograms recorded
a CME expanding toward the NW during 12 Dec. This CME was not
associated with a solar flare or filament eruption on the visible
disk. The solar wind speed decreased during 12 Dec and is expected
to decline towards slow wind values during the next 2 days. The
solar wind speed is currently about 520 km/s. The magnitude of
the IMF was about 6 nT and the Bz component was mostly weakly
northward during 12 Dec. A small coronal hole, CH 778, is located
near the equator and has crossed the solar meridian into the
western hemisphere. CH 778 will become geoeffective later in
the week.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 21211212
Cocos Island 3 11111210
Darwin 5 22211212
Townsville 5 21212212
Learmonth 5 21212212
Alice Springs 5 21212212
Norfolk Island 3 11101212
Gingin 4 21111211
Camden 5 22211212
Canberra 5 22201212
Launceston 6 32211212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 22100101
Casey 14 44332222
Mawson 12 33222324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 81 (Minor storm)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 006
Planetary 007
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 011
Planetary 012 3413 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Dec 6 Quiet
14 Dec 5 Quiet
15 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The planetary magnetic index Kp was 3 during 00-06 UT
on 12 Dec UT. Thereafter planetary conditions were quiet. Australian
region K indices were mostly 2 during 00-06 UT. The solar wind
speed is above 500 km/s and trending downwards towards slow wind
values. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet during
the next 3 days. Isolated unsettled intervals are possible today,
13 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Fair Poor-fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Fair Poor-fair
14 Dec Normal Fair Poor-fair
15 Dec Normal Fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed
in the Southern Hemisphere and mildly depressed in the Northern
Hemisphere during 12 Dec UT. Conditions are expected to recover
towards predicted monthly values during the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Dec -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Dec -5 5 to 30% below predicted monthly values
14 Dec 0 0 to 25% below predicted monthly values
15 Dec 5 0 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 66 was issued on 12 December
and is current for 12-14 Dec. Conditions for HF radio wave propagation
were depressed in the Australian during 12 Dec UT. They
were more depressed at high latitudes than low latitudes. For
example, the local T index was -50 at Hobart and 9 at Darwin.
Conditions are expected to trend towards predicted monthly values
during the next 3 days. HF users are advised to use frequencies
lower than the predicted monthly values. Mid-latitude sporadic
E layers are prevalent on an almost daily basis.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 609 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 181000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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