[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 December 16 issued 2334 UT on 12 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 13 10:34:14 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec:  Very low

Flares: B class flares

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 071/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Dec             14 Dec             15 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   070/13             075/13             075/13

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 12 Dec UT and 
it is expected to remain very low during the next 3 days. There 
is a small chance of a C class flare. AR 2617 is the only active 
region on the visible solar disk. SOHO LASCO coronograms recorded 
a CME expanding toward the NW during 12 Dec. This CME was not 
associated with a solar flare or filament eruption on the visible 
disk. The solar wind speed decreased during 12 Dec and is expected 
to decline towards slow wind values during the next 2 days. The 
solar wind speed is currently about 520 km/s. The magnitude of 
the IMF was about 6 nT and the Bz component was mostly weakly 
northward during 12 Dec. A small coronal hole, CH 778, is located 
near the equator and has crossed the solar meridian into the 
western hemisphere. CH 778 will become geoeffective later in 
the week.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21211212
      Cocos Island         3   11111210
      Darwin               5   22211212
      Townsville           5   21212212
      Learmonth            5   21212212
      Alice Springs        5   21212212
      Norfolk Island       3   11101212
      Gingin               4   21111211
      Camden               5   22211212
      Canberra             5   22201212
      Launceston           6   32211212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     2   22100101
      Casey               14   44332222
      Mawson              12   33222324

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              81   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg       006
           Planetary            007                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg       011
           Planetary            012   3413 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Dec     6    Quiet
14 Dec     5    Quiet
15 Dec     4    Quiet

COMMENT: The planetary magnetic index Kp was 3 during 00-06 UT 
on 12 Dec UT. Thereafter planetary conditions were quiet. Australian 
region K indices were mostly 2 during 00-06 UT. The solar wind 
speed is above 500 km/s and trending downwards towards slow wind 
values. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet during
the next 3 days. Isolated unsettled intervals are possible today, 
13 Dec.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Dec      Fair           Poor-fair      Poor           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Dec      Normal         Fair           Poor-fair
14 Dec      Normal         Fair           Poor-fair
15 Dec      Normal         Fair           Poor-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were depressed 
in the Southern Hemisphere and mildly depressed in the Northern 
Hemisphere during 12 Dec UT. Conditions are expected to recover 
towards predicted monthly values during the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Dec    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      3
Dec      24
Jan      23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Dec    -5    5 to 30% below predicted monthly values
14 Dec     0    0 to 25% below predicted monthly values
15 Dec     5    0 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 66 was issued on 12 December 
and is current for 12-14 Dec. Conditions for HF radio wave propagation 
were depressed in the Australian during 12 Dec UT. They 
were more depressed at high latitudes than low latitudes. For 
example, the local T index was -50 at Hobart and 9 at Darwin. 
Conditions are expected to trend towards predicted monthly values 
during the next 3 days. HF users are advised to use frequencies 
lower than the predicted monthly values. Mid-latitude sporadic 
E layers are prevalent on an almost daily basis.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 609 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:   181000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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