[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 December 16 issued 2330 UT on 03 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 4 10:30:19 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 3 December, with no notable flares. There are currently
4 numbered sunspot region on the visible solar disk. The three
day outlook (4-6 December) is for very low solar activity with
a chance of C-class flares. The solar wind speeds remained near
background levels of 320 km/s throughout the UT day. The current
solar wind speed is near 300 km/s. The north-south component
of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated between
-3 and +1 nT, and was weakly southwards for most parts of the
UT day. Bt was steady near 3 nT at most times. The two day outlook
(4-5 December) is for the solar winds to mainly remain at the
background levels with possible mild enhancement in wind speeds
associated with the arrival of high wind streams emanating from
the small positive polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11000110
Cocos Island 1 01110110
Darwin 1 01100101
Townsville 1 11000110
Learmonth 2 11000210
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Norfolk Island 0 00000011
Gingin 1 00000120
Camden 2 10002211
Canberra 0 10000000
Launceston 1 11100110
Hobart 1 11100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 23320110
Mawson 5 21000142
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0101 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 53 was issued on 1 December
and is current for 3-4 Dec. The geomagnetic activity over the
Australian region were mostly at quiet levels throughout the
UT day 3 December. The outlook for today (4 December) is for
the geomagnetic conditions to remain at quiet levels in the early
part of UT day and later expected to reach unsettled levels in
response to the approaching coronal hole effects. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to return to nominal levels later on
UT day 05 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Observed MUF's were nearly monthly predicted levels
over most regions during UT day 3 December. Similar HF conditions
are expected today, 4 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Dec 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Dec 24 Near predicted monthly values
05 Dec 24 Near predicted monthly values
06 Dec 24 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian region were mostly near monthly
predicted values on 3 December, with moderate variations in equatorial
and Northern Australian regions. MUFs are likely to remain near
predicted monthly values over the next three days (4 - 6 December).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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