[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 December 16 issued 2330 UT on 02 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 3 10:30:23 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Dec             04 Dec             05 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   85/27               85/27            85/27

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT 
day, 2 December, with no notable flares. There are currently 
4 numbered sunspot region on the visible solar disk. The three 
day outlook (3-5 December) is for very low solar activity with 
a chance of C-class flares. The solar wind speeds enhanced briefly 
to 500 km/s at the beginning of the UT day (02/0000 UT) and thereafter 
had continued to decline towards nominal levels. The current 
solar wind speed is near 350 km/s. The north-south component 
of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated between 
-3 and +5 nT, and was weakly southwards for most parts of the 
UT day. Bt was steady near 5 nT at most times. The two day outlook 
(3-4 December) is for the solar winds to enhance weakly as a 
small positive polarity coronal hole approaches geoeffective 
location on the solar disk.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111111
      Cocos Island         2   11110111
      Darwin               2   20111000
      Townsville           3   21011111
      Learmonth            3   21111111
      Alice Springs        3   21111101
      Norfolk Island       2   21011011
      Gingin               3   11112111
      Camden               7   32121311
      Canberra             2   11111000
      Launceston           4   12112111
      Hobart               3   11112101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     2   11011100
      Casey               13   34432111
      Mawson              11   33322233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg       4
           Planetary            4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg       2
           Planetary            2   0211 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Dec    12    Unsettled
04 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Dec     6    Quiet

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 53 was issued on 1 December 
and is current for 3-4 Dec. The geomagnetic activity over the 
Australian region were at quiet levels during the UT day 2 December. 
The outlook for today (3 December) is for the geomagnetic conditions 
to remain at quiet levels in the early part of UT day and later 
expected to reach unsettled levels in response to the approaching 
coronal hole. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to return to 
nominal levels later on UT day 04 December.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Observed MUF's were nearly monthly predicted levels 
over most regions during UT day 2 December. Similar HF conditions 
are expected today, 3 December.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Dec    21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      3
Dec      24
Jan      23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Dec    24    Near predicted monthly values
04 Dec    24    Near predicted monthly values
05 Dec    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values on 2 
December, with moderated enhancements in equatorial regions. 
MUFs are likely to remain near predicted monthly values over 
the next three days (3 - 5 December).

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 366 km/sec  Density:    7.6 p/cc  Temp:    15200 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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