[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 December 16 issued 2330 UT on 01 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 2 10:30:23 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Very low activity is expected
for the next 3 days, with a chance of C-class flares. The solar
wind speed varied between 330-390 km/s, currently 360 km/s. The
IMF total strength declined to around 4 nT. The Bz component
varied between -3 to +5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 22201001
Cocos Island 2 12201000
Darwin 3 22201001
Townsville 3 22201001
Learmonth 3 22212000
Alice Springs 3 22201001
Norfolk Island 3 22200001
Gingin 3 22201000
Camden 7 32211222
Canberra 3 22201000
Launceston 4 23211001
Hobart 4 12201003
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 11100000
Casey 7 34311000
Mawson 7 34212000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0020 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Dec 3 Quiet
03 Dec 6 Quiet, with possible minor storm late in the
day.
04 Dec 12 Active to Minor Storm early in day.
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 53 was issued on 1 December
and is current for 3-4 Dec. Magnetic conditions over the Australian
region were quiet on 1-Dec and are expected to remain so on 2-Dec.
A small coronal hole could bring brief active periods to the
Australian region from late on 3-Dec or early 4-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Dec 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values
03 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values
04 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values on 1-Dec,
with more variation in equatorial regions. MUFs are likely to
remain near predicted monthly values on 2-Dec, with the possibility
of some mild depressions 3-4 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 15300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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