[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 November 16 issued 2330 UT on 30 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 1 10:30:30 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 29/2338UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours,
with an M1 X-ray flare and several C-class flares from region
2615 (S07E40). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Moderate
activity is expected for the next 3 days, with region 2615 spot
count increasing. The solar wind speed declined to 340 km/s,
currently 380 km/s. The IMF total strength rose to around 7 nT.
The Bz component varied between -3 to +4 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11101101
Cocos Island 1 1-110100
Darwin 1 11100100
Townsville 3 21111101
Learmonth 2 21000101
Alice Springs 1 11100100
Norfolk Island 2 21000011
Gingin 1 11101100
Camden 4 21101212
Canberra 2 21101000
Launceston 4 12211111
Hobart 2 12101100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 0-101000
Casey 13 35331112
Mawson 7 33211122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2111 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 5 Quiet
02 Dec 5 Quiet
03 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions over the Australian region were
quiet on 30-Nov and are expected to remain so for the next 3
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec 35 Near predicted monthly values
02 Dec 35 Near predicted monthly values
03 Dec 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values on 30-Nov,
with some enhanced periods. Some periods of sporadic-E were observed.
MUFs likely to remain near predicted monthly values to mildly
enhanced for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 22500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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