[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 December 16 issued 2339 UT on 04 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 5 10:39:25 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Very low to low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 78/17
COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day,
4 December, with only C-class flares. The strongest flare, C1.8
peaked at 04/1755 UT and was from region 2615. There are currently
4 numbered sunspot region on the visible solar disk. The two
day outlook (5-6 December) is for low to moderate solar activity
with C-class flares likely and isolated chance of M-class flares,
possibly from Region 2615. No earth directed coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraphic imagery.
The solar wind speeds remained near background levels of 290
km/s throughout the UT day. The current solar wind speed is near
280 km/s. The north-south component of the Interplanetary Magnetic
Field (IMF) fluctuated between -5 and +2 nT, and was weakly southwards
for most parts of the UT day. Bt was steady near 3 nT during
the early part of the UT day and from thereon gradually increased
to ~4 nT. The two day outlook (5-6 December) is for the solar
winds to mainly remain at the background levels with possible
mild enhancement in wind speeds associated with the arrival of
high wind streams emanating from the small positive polarity
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 1 01110000
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 2 12000101
Learmonth 1 01000002
Alice Springs 0 01000001
Norfolk Island 2 11000012
Gingin 1 11000002
Camden 3 12111102
Canberra 1 02000001
Launceston 2 02010002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 01000001
Casey 6 23211112
Mawson 3 12000013
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Dec 6 Quiet
07 Dec 20 Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity over the Australian region
was mostly at quiet levels throughout the UT day 4 December.
The outlook for today (5 December) is for the geomagnetic conditions
to remain mostly at quiet levels and at times could reach unsettled
levels in response to the approaching coronal hole effects. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to return to nominal levels later on
UT day 06 December. On 07 December geomagnetic conditions are
expected to reach active levels. This is due to the expected
arrival of the co-rotating interaction region ahead of the high
speed solar wind streams associated with a large Southern Hemisphere
coronal hole, which soon will be approaching geoeffective location
on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
07 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted levels
over the mid-latitude regions during UT day 4 December. Minor
depressions occurred in the low and high-latitude regions. Similar
HF conditions are expected today, 5 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Dec 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values
06 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
07 Dec 24 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUF were experienced over the equatorial
and Northern Australian regions on UT day 4 December. Elsewhere,
MUFs were near monthly predicted values. Similar MUF conditions
are expected for next two days (5-6 December).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 314 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 8290 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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