[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 December 16 issued 2339 UT on 04 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 5 10:39:25 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Dec             06 Dec             07 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Very low to low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              78/17

COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day, 
4 December, with only C-class flares. The strongest flare, C1.8 
peaked at 04/1755 UT and was from region 2615. There are currently 
4 numbered sunspot region on the visible solar disk. The two 
day outlook (5-6 December) is for low to moderate solar activity 
with C-class flares likely and isolated chance of M-class flares, 
possibly from Region 2615. No earth directed coronal mass ejections 
(CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraphic imagery. 
The solar wind speeds remained near background levels of 290 
km/s throughout the UT day. The current solar wind speed is near 
280 km/s. The north-south component of the Interplanetary Magnetic 
Field (IMF) fluctuated between -5 and +2 nT, and was weakly southwards 
for most parts of the UT day. Bt was steady near 3 nT during 
the early part of the UT day and from thereon gradually increased 
to ~4 nT. The two day outlook (5-6 December) is for the solar 
winds to mainly remain at the background levels with possible 
mild enhancement in wind speeds associated with the arrival of 
high wind streams emanating from the small positive polarity 
coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000001
      Cocos Island         1   01110000
      Darwin               1   11000001
      Townsville           2   12000101
      Learmonth            1   01000002
      Alice Springs        0   01000001
      Norfolk Island       2   11000012
      Gingin               1   11000002
      Camden               3   12111102
      Canberra             1   02000001
      Launceston           2   02010002    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000001
      Casey                6   23211112
      Mawson               3   12000013

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              0   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Dec     6    Quiet
07 Dec    20    Active

COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity over the Australian region 
was mostly at quiet levels throughout the UT day 4 December. 
The outlook for today (5 December) is for the geomagnetic conditions 
to remain mostly at quiet levels and at times could reach unsettled 
levels in response to the approaching coronal hole effects. Geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to return to nominal levels later on 
UT day 06 December. On 07 December geomagnetic conditions are 
expected to reach active levels. This is due to the expected 
arrival of the co-rotating interaction region ahead of the high 
speed solar wind streams associated with a large Southern Hemisphere 
coronal hole, which soon will be approaching geoeffective location 
on the solar disk.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Observed MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted levels 
over the mid-latitude regions during UT day 4 December. Minor 
depressions occurred in the low and high-latitude regions. Similar 
HF conditions are expected today, 5 December.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Dec    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      3
Dec      24
Jan      23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Dec    15    Near predicted monthly values
06 Dec    10    Near predicted monthly values
07 Dec    24    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUF were experienced over the equatorial 
and Northern Australian regions on UT day 4 December. Elsewhere, 
MUFs were near monthly predicted values. Similar MUF conditions 
are expected for next two days (5-6 December).

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 314 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:     8290 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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