[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 24 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 25 09:30:28 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed mostly stayed around 550 km/s during this time.
The north-south component of IMF, Bz varied mostly between +/-6
nT during the UT day. Solar wind conditions may stay strong on
25 August due to the continued effect of a coronal hole. Solar
wind parameters may be expected to gradually return towards normal
values from 26 August. Solar activity is expected to stay at
Very Low levels for the next three days with some possibility
of isolated C-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A K
Australian Region 12 42133223
Cocos Island 8 32122223
Townsville 13 43233223
Learmonth 14 42233224
Alice Springs 10 32232223
Norfolk Island 13 52-32122
Gingin 13 42132234
Camden 11 33133223
Canberra 10 32133213
Launceston 13 33243223
Hobart 12 33143213
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Aug :
Macquarie Island 22 32256113
Casey 18 54232224
Mawson 47 55444357
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 65 (Active)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18 1101 4455
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Aug 15 Quiet to unsettled, some active periods possible
26 Aug 8 Quiet to unsettled
27 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Due to strong solar wind stream from a coronal hole,
geomagnetic activity increased to active levels on 24 August.
Geomagnetic activity may stay at unsettled levels with the possibility
of some active periods on 25 August due to the coronal hole effect.
Activity levels may gradually decline to unsettled and then quiet
levels on 26 August. Mostly quiet periods can be expected on
27 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
26 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild to Moderate MUF depressions were observed in some
low and mid latitude regions during the UT day, 24 August. MUFs
were near predicted monthly values for most other regions. Mild
to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions
may be observed on 25 and possibly 26 August due to expected
continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 27 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Aug 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
26 Aug 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to Moderate MUF depressions were observed in the
equatorial and Southern Australian regions during the UT day,
24 August. MUFs were near predicted monthly values for most other
regions. Mild to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed in the Aus/NZ region on 25 and
possibly 26 August due to expected continued rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on these days. Mostly normal HF conditions may
be expected on 27 August in this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 10.2 p/cc Temp: 178000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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