[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 25 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 26 09:30:20 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed mostly stayed between 550 and 600 km/s until
around 0800 UT, and between 500 and 550 thereafter (UT day 25
August). The north-south component of IMF, Bz varied mostly between
+/-5 nT during this time. The solar wind parameters may be expected
to gradually return towards normal values from 26 August. Solar
activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the next
three days (26, 27 and 28 August) with some possibility of isolated
C-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 11332222
Cocos Island 6 11231222
Townsville 10 22332223
Learmonth 9 11332223
Alice Springs 7 11232222
Norfolk Island 6 11231212
Gingin 9 11232323
Camden 7 11332212
Canberra 6 11232212
Launceston 11 12342223
Hobart 9 11342222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Aug :
Macquarie Island 19 11463322
Casey 17 44432323
Mawson 37 44443556
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 19 5324 4223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Aug 6 Quiet
28 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Despite a strong solar wind stream from a coronal hole,
geomagnetic activity mostly stayed at quiet to unsettled levels
on 25 August. The activity stayed at these lower levels as, Bz,
the north south component of IMF did not show any significant
periods of staying south. The solar wind stream is still going
strong, but is expected to weaken through 26 and possibly 27
August. Geomagnetic activity may rise to unsettled levels on
26 August due to the continued coronal hole effect. Activity
levels may gradually decline to mostly quiet levels on 27 and
28 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild to Moderate MUF depressions were observed during
the UT day, 25 August. Mild to moderate depressions in MUFs and
degradations in HF conditions may be observed on 26 August due
to expected continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels on
this day. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 27 and
28 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Aug 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Aug 30 Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to Moderate MUF depressions were observed in most
parts of Australian/NZ regions during the UT day, 25 August.
Mild to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions
may be observed in this region on 26 August due to expected continued
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this day. Mostly normal
HF conditions may be expected on 27 and 28 August in this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 534 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 362000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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