[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 23 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 24 09:30:21 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Aug             25 Aug             26 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed gradually increased from around 370 to 660 km/s 
during this period. This increase in solar wind mainly happened 
during the second half of the UT day. The north-south component 
of IMF, Bz varied mostly between +/-6 nT during the first half 
of the UT day and then turned and stayed south until around 2100UT. 
Stronger solar wind conditions may be expected on 24 and 25 August 
due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal 
hole. Solar wind parameters may be expected to gradually return 
towards normal values on 26 August. Solar activity is expected 
to stay at Very Low levels for the next three days with some 
possibility of isolated C-class event.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Mostly quiet 
to active, isolated minor storm periods on high latitudes

Estimated Indices 23 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   12123333
      Cocos Island         9   11133233
      Townsville          10   12133233
      Learmonth           11   22133333
      Alice Springs        9   12123233
      Norfolk Island       7   12023232
      Gingin              10   11023334
      Camden              10   12123333
      Canberra             9   02023333
      Launceston          14   12024344
      Hobart              11   12023343    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    25   01036544
      Casey               10   23322223
      Mawson              27   33133465

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            7   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gingin              19   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   1121 0012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active
25 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active
26 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Due to sustained periods of negative Bz and some strengthening 
in the solar wind stream, geomagnetic activity increased to active 
levels with isolated minor storm periods on high latitudes on 
23 August. Geomagnetic activity may stay at Unsettled to Active 
levels on 24 and 25 August due to a coronal hole effect. Activity 
levels may gradually decline to Unsettled and then Quiet levels 
on 26 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
25 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mild to Moderate MUF depressions were observed in some 
mid-latitude regions during the UT day, 23 August. MUFs were 
near predicted monthly values for most other regions. Mild to 
moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions 
may be observed on 24 and 25 August due to expected rise in geomagnetic 
activity levels on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Aug    26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      27
Aug      38
Sep      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Aug    20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
25 Aug    20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
26 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Mild to Moderate MUF depressions were observed in Southern 
Australian regions during the UT day, 23 August. MUFs were near 
predicted monthly values for most other regions. Mild to moderate 
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be 
observed on 24 and 25 August due to expected rise in geomagnetic 
activity levels on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 394 km/sec  Density:    8.1 p/cc  Temp:   216000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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