[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 19 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 20 09:30:34 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Aug             21 Aug             22 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day 19 Aug. Solar 
activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days with 
a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed in the available SOHO coronagraph imagery during the 
last 24 hours. DSCOVR spacecraft showed the solar wind speed 
remained around 350km/s during the UT day. The Bz component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field varied between +/-5nT. Meanwhile 
Bt was steady near 6 nT during the last 24 hours. Expect an increase 
in the solar wind speed today 20 Aug, due to anticipated arrival 
of a high speed stream associated with a coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   00112110
      Cocos Island         2   01111110
      Townsville           3   11112111
      Learmonth            3   10112120
      Alice Springs        2   00112010
      Norfolk Island       1   10101000
      Gingin               2   00112120
      Camden               2   01112110
      Canberra             1   00102010
      Launceston           3   01113020
      Hobart               2   00112010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     3   00113110
      Casey                6   22312120
      Mawson              13   21221335

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   2311 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Aug    15    Quiet to Active
21 Aug    12    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Aug     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian 
region on 19 August. Conditions are expected to reach Unsettled 
levels and at times approaching Active levels 20-21 August due 
to an increase in the solar wind speed.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
21 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
22 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected 
to be mildly depressed to near normal during the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Aug    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      27
Aug      38
Sep      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
21 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
22 Aug    35    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mild MUF depressions were observed in the north on 19 
Aug. MUFs were near monthly predicted values otherwise. Periods 
of sporadic-E were observed at Cocos Island 20-21 UT. Degradations 
in HF conditions are likely 20-21 due to continued low levels 
of ionising radiation and the anticipated increase in geomagnetic 
activity during this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 382 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:   305000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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