[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 20 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 21 09:30:19 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low for the UT day 20 Aug.
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days
with a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in the available SOHO coronagraph imagery during
the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed declined to ~300 km/s
during the UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field varied between +/-5nT and the B total ranged between 5-8
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at nominal levels
21-22 Aug. Expect a moderate increase in the solar wind speed
on 23 Aug due to the arrival of a high speed stream associated
with a coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 21100000
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Townsville 3 22210001
Learmonth 1 21100000
Alice Springs 1 11100000
Norfolk Island 1 11100000
Gingin 1 21100000
Camden 3 22210000
Canberra 1 11100000
Launceston 2 21111000
Hobart 1 11101000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 11101000
Casey 6 33311100
Mawson 17 63211104
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1011 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Aug 7 Quiet
22 Aug 7 Quiet
23 Aug 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian
region on 20 Aug and are expected to remain mostly Quiet 21-22
Aug. Conditions are expected to reach Unsettled levels and at
times approaching Active levels from 23 Aug due to an increase
in the solar wind speed.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be mildly depressed to near normal during the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Aug 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed in northern Australian
and equatorial regions during the UT day 20 Aug. MUFs were near
predicted monthly values for southern Australia. MUFs were near
predicted monthly values for the Antarctic region with periods
of little ionospheric support for HF communications. Noted periods
sporadic E at Cocos Island station. Similar conditions are likely
to continue during the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list