[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 18 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 19 09:30:19 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 80/20 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day 18 August.
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days
with a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in the available SOHO coronagraph imagery during
the last 24 hours. DSCOVR spacecraft showed the solar wind speed
decreased from 435 to 350km/s during the UT day, currently around
360km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
varied between +/-6nT and the B total decreased from 8 to 6 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain at nominal levels
for the UT day 19 August. Expect a moderate increase in the solar
wind on 20-21 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22212101
Cocos Island 3 11112101
Townsville 7 22213212
Learmonth 5 22213101
Alice Springs 5 22203101
Norfolk Island 3 22101111
Gingin 5 22212102
Camden 4 22112101
Canberra 3 12112101
Launceston 6 22213201
Hobart 4 22112101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Aug :
Macquarie Island 4 12213100
Casey 8 33222212
Mawson 32 37333125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 10 3421 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Aug 14 Unsettled to Active
21 Aug 16 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian
region on 18 August. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be
Quiet to Unsettled today, 19 August. Conditions are expected
to reach Unsettled levels and at times approaching Active levels
20-21 August due to an increase in the solar wind speed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for today,18 Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Aug 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Aug 38 Near predicted monthly values
20 Aug 38 Near predicted monthly values
21 Aug 38 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slightly depressed to near monthly predicted MUF's were
observed during the last 24 hours with the depressions noticed
over the Northern and Equatorial regions. HF conditions are expected
to remain at similar levels today, 19 August. There may be minor
disturbances in the ionosphere due to weak geomagnetic activity
on 20-21 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 81400 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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