[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 17 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 18 09:30:32 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels on UT day 17 Aug.
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low for the next
3 days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery during the last 24 hours. The solar wind
speed varied between 300-450km/s, currently around 400km/s. The
Bz component had notable southward excursions reaching -10 nT
~~1700UT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain around 400Km/s
today ,18 Aug. An increase in solar wind parameters is likely
on 19 Aug due to a low latitude coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22201022
Cocos Island 3 22100021
Townsville 5 22211022
Learmonth 5 21201032
Alice Springs 4 22201022
Norfolk Island 4 23101011
Gingin 5 23101031
Camden 3 12201021
Canberra 4 12202021
Launceston 5 22202022
Hobart 5 22202022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Aug :
Macquarie Island 4 23102011
Casey 8 33211132
Mawson 19 34310155
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 1011 2214
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Aug 7 Quiet
19 Aug 15 Quiet to Active
20 Aug 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian
region on 17 Aug. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain
mostly Quiet today, 18 Aug. Conditions are expected to reach
Unsettled levels and at times approaching Active levels 19-20
Aug due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal
20 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for today,18 Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Aug 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug 40 Near predicted monthly values
20 Aug 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slightly depressed to near monthly predicted MUF's were
observed during the last 24 hours with the depressions noticed
over the Northern and Equatorial regions. HF conditions are expected
to remain at similar levels today, 18 Aug. Slightly improved
HF conditions may be observed 19 Aug due to possible increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 298 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 17300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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