[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 13 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 14 09:30:23 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Aug             15 Aug             16 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low to low over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed 
declined further to around 430 km/s. The total IMF strength remained 
below 4 nT. A southern hemisphere coronal hole, now in a geoeffective 
position, could disturb solar wind parameters slightly on 14-15 
Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21112121
      Cocos Island         3   11111120
      Townsville           4   21112112
      Learmonth            4   21111121
      Alice Springs        3   21102111
      Norfolk Island       1   11001010
      Gingin               3   21102120
      Camden               4   11112121
      Canberra             3   11112111
      Launceston           6   22222221
      Hobart               4   21212120    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     4   11213110
      Casey               11   33323131
      Mawson              23   23322464

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              20   (Quiet)
      Canberra            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14   4422 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian 
region on 13-Aug. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the 
next 3 days, with some unsettled periods possible 14-15 Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Aug    41

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      27
Aug      38
Sep      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Aug    40    Near predicted monthly values
15 Aug    40    Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug    40    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Moderate MUF depressions were observed in the north 
on 13-Aug. Periods of sporadic-E were observed in the southeast 
2-5 UT. MUFs were near monthly predicted values otherwise, as 
they are expected to be for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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