[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 August 16 issued 2336 UT on 14 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 15 09:36:32 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels on UT day
14 August, with only one weak C-class (C1.1) flare and few B-class
flares. The two day outlook (15-16 August) is for very low levels
of solar activity with chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery during
the last 24 hours. The solar winds declined from ~450 km/s to
near ambient level of ~380 km/s during the UT day. The Bz component
of the IMF was mostly positive (Northward) during the UT day
and reached a peak value of +5 nT. Meanwhile Bt was steady near
5 nT during the last 24 hours. The two day outlook (15-16 August)
is for the solar winds to gradually enhance as a recurrent coronal
hole is expected to become geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 1110----
Cocos Island 2 1110----
Townsville 4 2210----
Learmonth 3 1120----
Alice Springs 2 1110----
Norfolk Island 1 1100----
Gingin 3 1120----
Camden 2 1110----
Canberra 2 1110----
Launceston 3 2110----
Hobart 2 1110----
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 0000----
Casey 10 2331----
Mawson 8 3221----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2211 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Aug 20 Active
17 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region
were mostly near quiet levels on UT day 14 August. The outlook
for today (15 August) is for mostly quiet and at times unsettled
geomagnetic conditions. However, on UT day 16 August geomagnetic
conditions are expected to reach active levels and at times approaching
minor storm levels as high speed streams from a recurrent coronal
hole becomes geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
14 August. Similar HF conditions are expected for today, 15 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Aug 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug 45 Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slightly depressed to near monthly predicted MUF's were
observed over most Australasia regions during the last 24 hours
(14 August) with the largest depressions noticed over the Northern
Australian regions. HF conditions are expected to remain at similar
levels today (15 August). Much improved HF conditions are expected
tomorrow, 16 August, Day 1 of possible active conditions associated
with the approaching coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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