[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 12 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 13 09:30:25 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Neither of the two large filaments that lifted off from the northeast
quadrant in the latter half of the UT day seem likely to be geoeffective.
A CME first observed in STEREO-A imagery at 1909 UT needs further
analysis. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for
the next 3 days. The solar wind speed has declined to around
490 km/s. The IMF total strength varied from 2-5 nT, currently
around 4 nT. The Bz component varied +/-4 nT, currently neutral.
An increase in the solar wind speed is possible late on 14-Aug,
due to a southern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 33222211
Cocos Island 4 22220110
Townsville 10 33223222
Learmonth 8 33222122
Alice Springs 7 33122111
Norfolk Island 9 33322211
Culgoora 7 22222222
Gingin 9 32223222
Camden 9 33223211
Canberra 8 33222211
Launceston 9 33223212
Hobart 8 33222211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Aug :
Macquarie Island 7 23223201
Casey 10 33332212
Mawson 28 65443223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 2112 1333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Aug 12 Unsettled to Active
15 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled across the
Australian region on 12-Aug, with active to storm levels in the
Antarctic. Mostly quiet conditions are expected across Australia
on 13-Aug, with an increase in activity from late 14-Aug with
the onset of coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-poor
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-poor
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days, with some degraded periods at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Aug 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values
15 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed in the
north on 12-Aug. Periods of sporadic-E were observed in the north
from 18 UT. MUFs were near monthly predicted values otherwise,
as they are expected to be for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 593 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 152000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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