[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 11 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Fri Aug 12 09:30:18 EST 2016

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug:  95/41

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Aug             13 Aug             14 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
the largest event being a C2 X-ray flare from region 2574 (N05E22). 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected 
to be low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed varied between 
580-650 km/s, currently around 590 km/s. The IMF total strength 
mostly varied between 4-6 nT, currently around 5 nT. The Bz component 
varied mostly between +/-5 nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12221222
      Cocos Island         5   11121222
      Townsville           6   12221222
      Learmonth           10   22231333
      Alice Springs        5   11221222
      Norfolk Island       5   11121222
      Culgoora             8   23222222
      Gingin               8   12221323
      Camden               5   12121222
      Canberra             6   12121322
      Launceston          10   22231333
      Hobart               7   21121332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     7   11131331
      Casey               15   33431243
      Mawson              25   34434435

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           13   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              51   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            94   (Minor storm)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16   3333 2333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Aug     5    Quiet
14 Aug    12    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet across the Australian 
region on 11-Aug, with some isolated unsettled periods. In the 
Antarctic, some active periods were observed. Australian conditions 
are expected to be mostly quiet 12-13 Aug, with some unsettled 
periods on 12-Aug. Activity could increase again late on 14-Aug 
due to effects of a southern hemisphere coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-poor    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days, with some degraded periods at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Aug    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      27
Aug      38
Sep      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Aug    40    Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug    40    Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug    40    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Moderate nighttime MUF depressions were observed in 
the north on 11-Aug. MUFs were near monthly predicted values 
otherwise, as they are expected to be for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 627 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   255000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.