[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 August 16 issued 2341 UT on 07 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 8 09:41:44 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3    1444UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Aug             09 Aug             10 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours, 
with an M1 flare being the largest X-ray event. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate 
for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed declined to around 
500 km/s. The IMF total strength varied between 2-6 nT, currently 
5 nT. Coronal hole influences are likely to result in increases 
in the solar wind on 8-Aug and again on 10-Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22213212
      Cocos Island         4   21112211
      Townsville           8   32203312
      Learmonth            7   22213212
      Alice Springs        6   21203311
      Norfolk Island       5   31102212
      Culgoora             7   22222222
      Gingin               7   22213222
      Camden               6   32103211
      Canberra             6   32102212
      Launceston           9   32213322
      Hobart               7   22103322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     9   22103422
      Casey               22   34422622
      Mawson              36   54433327

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            50   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             12   3234 3223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Aug    18    Active
09 Aug    12    Unsettled
10 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled across the 
Australian region on 7-Aug. Brief storm-level periods were observed 
in the Antarctic. Australian conditions are expected to be quiet 
to unsettled for the next 3 days. Conditions at high latitudes 
are likely to reach active levels on 8-Aug and 10-Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
09 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
10 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Moderate MUF depressions are expected to continue for 
the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Aug    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      27
Aug      38
Sep      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Aug    20    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
09 Aug    25    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
10 Aug    25    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs continue to be moderately depressed compared to 
monthly predicted values. Sporadic-E was observed at times across 
the Australian region on 7-Aug, mostly in the latter half of 
the UT day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 597 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   129000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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