[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 August 16 issued 2341 UT on 07 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 8 09:41:44 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 1444UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours,
with an M1 flare being the largest X-ray event. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate
for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed declined to around
500 km/s. The IMF total strength varied between 2-6 nT, currently
5 nT. Coronal hole influences are likely to result in increases
in the solar wind on 8-Aug and again on 10-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 22213212
Cocos Island 4 21112211
Townsville 8 32203312
Learmonth 7 22213212
Alice Springs 6 21203311
Norfolk Island 5 31102212
Culgoora 7 22222222
Gingin 7 22213222
Camden 6 32103211
Canberra 6 32102212
Launceston 9 32213322
Hobart 7 22103322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Aug :
Macquarie Island 9 22103422
Casey 22 34422622
Mawson 36 54433327
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 50 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 12 3234 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Aug 18 Active
09 Aug 12 Unsettled
10 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled across the
Australian region on 7-Aug. Brief storm-level periods were observed
in the Antarctic. Australian conditions are expected to be quiet
to unsettled for the next 3 days. Conditions at high latitudes
are likely to reach active levels on 8-Aug and 10-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Moderate MUF depressions are expected to continue for
the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Aug 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Aug 20 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
09 Aug 25 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
10 Aug 25 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs continue to be moderately depressed compared to
monthly predicted values. Sporadic-E was observed at times across
the Australian region on 7-Aug, mostly in the latter half of
the UT day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 597 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 129000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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