[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 06 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 7 09:30:19 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels on UT day
6 August, with one only B-class flares. The two day outlook (7-8
August) is for very low levels of solar activity with slight
chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery during the last 24 hours.
The solar winds were still at moderately elevated levels of ~600
km/s during the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated
between -5 nT and +5 nT. Meanwhile Bt was steady near 6 nT during
the UT day. These high solar wind speeds are caused by high speed
streams from the coronal hole. The outlook for today (7 August)
and early tomorrow (8 August) is for the solar winds to decrease
slightly as the effects of the coronal hole wanes. On late UT
day 8 August, the solar winds are expected to enhance again as
a new equatorial coronal approaches geoeffective location on
the solar disk
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A K
Australian Region 9 22242222
Cocos Island 5 11222112
Townsville 10 22342222
Learmonth 10 123332--
Alice Springs 8 22232222
Norfolk Island 9 21342112
Culgoora 8 22232222
Gingin 11 22243322
Canberra 9 22242221
Launceston 14 22353222
Hobart 12 22253221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Aug :
Macquarie Island 28 21275311
Casey 18 34343423
Mawson 39 34544366
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 51 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 16 2444 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Aug 9 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Aug 12 Unsettled
09 Aug 20 Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region
were mostly unsettled and at times reached active levels on UT
day 6 August. The Australian region Dst index dipped to a low
of -39 nT at 06/1100 UT. These fluctuations in geomagnetic levels
are due to very high solar speed streams of greater 500 km/s
still emanating from the coronal hole. The two day outlook (7
- 8 August) for mostly unsettled geomagnetic conditions as the
current coronal effects begin to wane. From late UT 8 August,
geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach active levels and
at times approaching minor storm levels as another isolated equatorial
coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Moderate MUF depressions were observed in the Northern
Hemisphere regions on UT day 6 August. Slight improvements in
HF conditions are expected in the Northern Hemisphere regions today,
7 August, as the ionosphere continues to recover from the 3 August
storms. In the Southern Hemisphere, expect slightly depressed
to near monthly predicted MUFs today, 7 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Aug 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Aug 22 Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug 18 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slightly depressed to near monthly predicted MUF's were
observed over most Australasia regions during the last 24 hours
(6 August) with the largest depressions over the Southern Australian
regions. HF conditions are expected to remain at similar levels
today (7 August) as the ionosphere continues to recover from
the 3 August storms. More improved HF conditions are expected
on 8 August, Day 1 of possible active conditions as a separate
equatorial coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 629 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 213000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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