[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 05 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 6 09:30:23 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 95/41
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels on UT day
5 August, with one weak C-class flare and several B-class flares.
All the flares were reported to be from Region 2572, which currently
is located at N13W45. The two day outlook (6-7 August) is for
very low levels of solar activity with C-class flares likely
due to flaring potential of Region 2572. Further evaluation of
the erupting solar filament observed at 03/1600 UT from around
the solar centre (N25E20) and the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)
observed on LASCO imagery starting from 03/1700 UT suggest that
these may be unconnected events. The CME appears to be triggered
by a separate limb side event and therefore is not likely to
affect earth. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery during the last 24 hours. The solar winds
were at elevated levels during the UT day and reached peak levels
of 750 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between -5
nT and +5 nT. Meanwhile Bt was steady near 6 nT during the UT
day. These high solar wind speeds are caused by high speed streams
from the coronal hole. The two day outlook (6 - 7 August) is
for the solar winds to remain at these elevated levels as the
coronal hole effects persist.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A K
Australian Region 12 13343222
Cocos Island 8 13322212
Townsville 13 13443222
Learmonth 10 13333212
Alice Springs 10 03333222
Norfolk Island 10 13333212
Culgoora 11 33233222
Gingin 13 13343322
Canberra 11 13343212
Launceston 19 23454322
Hobart 14 13344321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Aug :
Macquarie Island 33 14475321
Casey 16 43433313
Mawson 34 24644355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 16 3433 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Aug 12 Unsettled
07 Aug 12 Unsettled
08 Aug 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region
were mostly unsettled and at times reached active levels on UT
day 5 August. The Australian region Dst index dipped to a low
of -57 nT at 05/0600 UT. These active conditions are due to very
high solar speed streams of greater 500 km/s emanating from the
coronal hole. The two day outlook (6 - 7 August) for mostly unsettled
and at times could reach active levels since very strong solar
wind speeds of greater than 500 km/s are expected to continue
over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Strong MUF depressions were observed in the Northern
Hemisphere regions on UT day 5 August. Depression are expected
to persist in the high and mid latitude regions of the Northern
Hemisphere today, 6 August since the moderately active geomagnetic
conditions associated with the coronal hole are expected to continue.
The Southern Hemisphere is also expected to experience moderately
depressed HF conditions in the high and mid latitude regions
today. Expect some improvements in global HF conditions from
tomorrow, 7 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Aug 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Aug 18 Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 22 Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 5 August
and is current for 5-6 Aug. Moderately depressed MUF's were observed
over most Australasia regions during the last 24 hours (4 August)
with strong depression over the Southern Australian region. These
conditions are a result of negative ionospheric storm effects
associated with the 3 August storms. HF conditions are expected
to remain moderately depressed today (6 August) as the ionosphere
gradually recovers from the 3 August storms. Near monthly predicted
HF condition are expected from tomorrow, 7 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 581 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 148000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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