[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 08 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 9 09:30:17 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
C-class X-ray flares from regions 2571 (N13W31), 2572 (N13W88)
and 2574 (N05E66). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar
activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next 3 days.
The solar wind speed declined to around 455 km/s, then rose to
peak around 540 km/s, currently 507 km/s. The IMF total strength
increased from 4 nT to around 8 nT, currently 7 nT. The Bz component
dipped to -7 nT after 14 UT, currently +6 nT. The solar wind
speed is likely to decline on 9-Aug, increasing again on 10-Aug
due to a northern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 22222420
Cocos Island 4 11121220
Townsville 8 21223321
Learmonth 8 22222420
Alice Springs 7 22222320
Norfolk Island 6 21122320
Culgoora 9 22223322
Gingin 9 32212420
Camden 9 22223420
Canberra 9 22123420
Launceston 12 22223520
Hobart 9 22223420
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Aug :
Macquarie Island 10 21224420
Casey 11 33232322
Mawson 26 54333630
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 10 4211 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
10 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
11 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 7 August and
is current for 8-10 Aug. Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet
across the Australian region on 8-Aug, with a brief unsettled
to active period 15-18 UT following a dip in IMF Bz. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected in Australia for the next 3
days, with active periods at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days, with degraded periods at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Aug 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values
11 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild nighttime depressions were observed across the
Australian region on 8-Aug. Overall, MUFs have increased, most
likely due to an increase in EUV radiation, and are expected
to be near monthly predicted values over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 545 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 101000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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