[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 02 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 3 09:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 2 August, with no flare activity. There is only one visible
sunspot region on the solar disk, Region 2570 which is currently
located at N10E01. The two day outlook (3-4 August) is for very
low levels of solar activity with a very small chance of C-class
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed increased from the
background levels of 300 km/s at the beginning of the UT day
to a peak value of ~450 km/s at 19 UT. From thereafter the solar
wind has been gradually declining. The Bz component of the IMF
fluctuated between -10 nT and +10 nT, turning southward between
02/1930 and 02/2230 UT. Meanwhile Bt showed a increasing trend
throughout the UT day. BT was near 20 nT at the time of writing.
These solar wind enhancements and the Bz perturbations are thought
to be associated with the 28 July slow moving CME triggered by
disappearing solar filament. The two day outlook (3 - 4 August)
is for the solar winds to further enhance in response to the
approaching high speed streams from a large positive polarity
equatorial coronal hole. In the previous rotation, the daily
mean solar wind speeds were greater than 500 km/s for at least
7 consecutive days during the passage of this coronal holes.
Similar effects are expected in this rotations.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Initially quiet,
later active
Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A K
Australian Region 10 02222334
Cocos Island 12 13222334
Darwin 12 13222334
Townsville 14 13223344
Learmonth 9 02222333
Alice Springs 10 02222334
Norfolk Island 8 02222233
Culgoora 8 -2222223
Gingin 10 02222334
Canberra 6 02122223
Launceston 9 02222324
Hobart 6 02121223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 00000112
Casey 10 13411114
Mawson 18 42222226
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 2100 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Aug 30 Active to Minor Storm
04 Aug 25 Active
05 Aug 20 Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region
were initially quiet and reached active levels towards the end
of the UT day (August 2). The active conditions were associated
with moderately strong solar wind speeds of 450 km/s and a prolonged
southward Bz, which were thought to be caused by the passage
of the 28 July CME over earth. The outlook for today (3 August)
is for the geomagnetic activity to be mostly near active levels
and at times reaching moderate storm levels in response to the
expected arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed
by the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS). The outlook for 4 and 5 August is for mostly
active geomagnetic conditions and at times reaching minor storm
levels since very strong solar wind speeds of greater than 500
km/s are expected to emanate from this coronal. The aurora may
be visible on the local nights of 3 August from Tasmania and
some parts of Victoria, Australia.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
04 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
05 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions were observed across the mid
and high latitudes regions on 2 August, with the Northern Hemisphere
exhibiting stronger depression. Even stronger depression are
expected in the high and mid latitude regions of the Northern
Hemisphere today, 3 August, in response to the forecasted active
geomagnetic conditions. Slightly weaker depression are expected
for the Southern Hemisphere today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Aug 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 27
Aug 38
Sep 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Aug 30 Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 15 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUF's were observed over all Australasia regions
during the last 24 hours (2 August) with isolated enhancements
over some Southern AUS/NZ regions and over the South Pacific
Oceans. Slightly improved MUFs though still below the monthly
predicted levels are expected today (3 August) over the Australasia
region due to the forecasted active geomagnetic conditions. During
winter months, the Southern hemisphere regions are expected to
experience better HF conditions on Day 1 of storms. However,
HF conditions are expected to become depressed again on 4 and
5 August (Day 2 and Day 3 after storms), as the storm-associated
negative effects began to dominate. Near monthly predicted HF
condition are expected to occur from 6 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 43800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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