[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 August 16 issued 2330 UT on 03 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 4 09:30:32 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Aug             05 Aug             06 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Probable
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 
3 August, with no flare activity. The two day outlook (4-5 August) 
is for very low levels of solar activity with a very small chance 
of C-class flares. An erupting solar filament of length approximately 
15 degrees was observed near N25E20 at 03/1640 UT on the Gong 
H-Alpha imagery. At the time of writing, the relevant coronagraph 
imagery were not available to determine if this event has triggered 
an earth-directed CME. Based on the available solar wind data 
from the DSCOVR spacecraft, the solar winds were at moderately 
elevated levels of between 400 km/s and 500 km/s throughout the 
UT day. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between -20 nT 
and +20 nT, turning strongly southward at near 03/0400 UT. Meanwhile 
Bt reached a peak level of 30 nT during the UT day. These solar 
wind enhancements and the Bz perturbations are caused by high 
speed streams from a large positive polarity equatorial coronal 
hole. The two day outlook (4 - 5 August) is for the solar winds 
to remain at elevated levels in response to the coronal hole 
effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet to minor 
storm levels

Estimated Indices 03 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region      17   33444322
      Cocos Island        14   23343421
      Darwin              16   33443322
      Townsville          17   33444321
      Learmonth           15   33343421
      Alice Springs       17   33444322
      Norfolk Island      15   33443311
      Culgoora            14   23343323
      Gingin              23   33354532
      Canberra            20   33454322
      Launceston          30   33465433
      Hobart              21   33454332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    36   33565542
      Casey               23   35343352
      Mawson              68   56654756

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        28
           Planetary             35                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             16   1212 3355     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Aug    20    Active
05 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active
06 Aug    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 2 August and 
is current for 3-4 Aug. The geomagnetic conditions over the Australian 
region were initially quiet and then reached minor levels at 
near 03/1100 UT. The Australian Dst index dipped to a minimum 
of -130 nT at 03/1100 UT. These active conditions are due to 
high speed streams from a large positive polarity equatorial 
coronal hole. The two day outlook (4 - 5 August) for mostly unsettled 
to active geomagnetic conditions and at times reaching minor 
storm levels since very strong solar wind speeds of greater than 
500 km/s are expected to emanate from this coronal. There is 
a slight chance that aurora may be visible on the local nights 
of 4 August from Tasmania and some parts of Victoria, Australia.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Strong MUF depressions were observed over the Northern 
Hemisphere regions. Depression are expected to persist in the 
high and mid latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere today, 
4 August, in response to the active geomagnetic conditions associated 
with the coronal hole. The Southern Hemisphere is also expected 
to experience moderately depressed HF conditions in the high 
and mid latitude regions today.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Aug    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      27
Aug      38
Sep      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Aug    18    Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug    18    Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug    23    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Near monthly predicted MUF's were observed over all 
Australasia regions during the last 24 hours (3 August) with 
isolated depression over the Northern Australian region. These 
conditions are expected on Day 1 of storms during winter months 
over the Southern Hemisphere. However, HF conditions are expected 
to become depressed on 4 and 5 August (Day 2 and Day 3 after 
storms), as the storm-associated negative effects began to dominate. 
Near monthly predicted HF condition are expected from 6 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 383 km/sec  Density:    8.1 p/cc  Temp:    35600 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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