[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 August 16 issued 2334 UT on 01 Aug 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 2 09:34:54 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 AUGUST 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Aug             03 Aug             04 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT 
day, 1 August, with no flare activity. There is only one visible 
sunspot region on the solar disk, Region 2570 which is currently 
located at N10E13. The two day outlook (2-3 August) is for very 
low solar activity with very small chance of C-class flares. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. The solar wind speeds remained at near background levels 
of 350 km/s throughout the UT day 1 August. The Bz component 
of IMF had fluctuated rapidly between -4 and +4 nT during the 
last 8 hours of the UT day. Meanwhile Bt was steady near 5 nT. 
The outlook for today, 2 August, is for the solar winds to remain 
initially near the quiet levels and later towards the end of 
the UT begin to enhance in response to the approaching high speed 
streams from a large positive polarity coronal hole. The solar 
wind enhancements are expected to persist on August 3 and 4. 
In the previous rotation, the daily mean solar wind speeds were 
greater than 500 km/s for at least 7 consecutive days during 
the passage of this coronal holes. Similar effects are expected 
in this rotations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   11000000
      Cocos Island         1   11002000
      Darwin               1   11000001
      Townsville           1   21000001
      Learmonth            0   10000000
      Alice Springs        0   10000000
      Norfolk Island       0   10000001
      Culgoora             7   2222222-
      Gingin               0   11000000
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Launceston           1   21000001
      Hobart               0   10000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                3   22200010
      Mawson              10   32100025

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   2101 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active
03 Aug    20    Active
04 Aug    22    Active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 1 August and 
is current for 1-2 Aug. The geomagnetic conditions over the Australian 
region were mostly at quiet levels during the past 24 hours (August 
1).The outlook for today (2 August) is for the geomagnetic activity 
to be generally at unsettled levels and at times reaching active 
levels in response to the expected arrival of a co-rotating interaction 
region (CIR) followed by the influence of a positive polarity 
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The outlook for 3 and 
4 August is for mostly active geomagnetic conditions and at times 
reaching moderate storm levels since very strong solar wind speeds 
of greater than 500 km/s are expected to emanate from this coronal. 
The aurora may be visible on the local nights of 2 and 3 August 
from Tasmania and some parts of Victoria, Australia.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
04 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions were observed across all latitudes 
on 1 August, with the Northern Hemisphere exhibiting stronger 
depression. Even stronger depression are expected in the high 
and mid latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere today, 2 
August, in response to the forecasted active geomagnetic conditions. 
Slightly weaker depression are expected in the Southern Hemisphere 
today.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Aug    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% throughout the UT day
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      27
Aug      38
Sep      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Aug    20    Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug    15    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Aug    15    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Depressed MUF's were observed over all regions during 
the last 24 hours with isolated enhancements over some Southern 
AUS/NZ regions and over the South Pacific Oceans. Moderately 
depressed MUF conditions are expected over the Australasia region 
due to very low levels of solar ionising radiation. Even poorer 
HF conditions are expected on 3 and 4 August in response to the 
forecasted active geomagnetic conditions. Near monthly predicted 
HF condition are expected to occur from 6 August.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 392 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    47000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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