[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 July 16 issued 2349 UT on 31 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 1 09:49:54 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Aug             02 Aug             03 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with 
no flare activity to report. Small region 2570 located at N10E29 
has shown signs of decay and is the only numbered sun spot region 
currently on the visible disc. Solar wind speed (Vsw) has gradually 
declined over the last 24 hours, from 430km/s at 00UT to be ~350km/s 
at the time of this report. Bz, the north-south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +/-3nT over 
the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at ambient 
levels for the next 24 hours. An increase in solar wind parameters 
is likely early on 02Aug due to a glancing blow from the CME 
associated with the equatorial located disappearing solar filament 
from 28Jul. In addition to the CME arrival on 02Aug, a high speed 
solar wind stream from a positive polarity coronal hole is expected 
to influence the solar wind 02Aug-03Aug. Solar activity is expected 
to be Very Low for the next 3 days with only slight chance of 
a C-class flare.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   10110200
      Cocos Island         1   11010---
      Darwin               2   1011120-
      Townsville           3   1111120-
      Learmonth            2   11010200
      Alice Springs        1   1001020-
      Norfolk Island       1   10010100
      Culgoora             7   22222222
      Gingin               1   10100---
      Canberra             1   0001020-
      Launceston           2   10110200
      Hobart               1   00010200    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010---
      Casey                8   2332121-
      Mawson               8   4211221-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              15   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3211 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Aug    12    Mostly Quiet, possible Active to Minor Storm
02 Aug    30    Active to Minor Storm
03 Aug    18    Active

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly 
Quiet conditions expected for 01Aug with the chance of Active 
to Minor Storm conditions should CME effects eventuate. Active 
to Minor Storm conditions likely for 02Aug-03Aug due to combined 
effects of the anticipated CME arrival and coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair
02 Aug      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Poor
03 Aug      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Poor

COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions observed across all latitudes 
for 31Jul with occasional enhancements at low to mid latitudes. 
Continued MUF depressions are expected across all latitudes for 
01Aug. Possible disturbed ionospheric conditions for 02Aug-03Aug 
due to anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Jul    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      31
Jul      42
Aug      40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Aug    20    Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug     5    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
03 Aug     5    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 31 July 
and is current for 31 Jul to 1 Aug. Depressed MUF's observed 
over all regions during the last 24 hours with isolated enhancements 
for some Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Disturbed 
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Continued MUF depressions 
are expected over the next 24 hours. Chance of disturbed ionospheric 
support for Southern AUS/NZ regions and overall MUF depressions 
of 15-30% for 02Aug-03Aug due to increased geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 455 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    68600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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