[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 16 issued 2351 UT on 19 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 20 09:51:01 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with a
single C1.0 event at 2302UT from a yet to be determined region.
The solar wind speed declined from ~400km/s to be ~350km/s at
the time of this report. The north-south component of the IMF
Bz was predominantly northward over the UT day, with only brief
southward excursions reaching -4nT. A northern hemisphere located
coronal hole high speed solar wind stream was expected to influence
the solar wind over the previous 24 hours. There is only a small
chance that this may occur in the next 12 hours. Solar activity
is expected to range from Low to Moderate over the next 24 hours
as recent M-class producing region 2529 (N11W76) approaches the
west limb, with only a slight (10%) chance of an M-class event.
Low to Very Low activity expected for 21Apr-22Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A K
Australian Region 0 00000000
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 0 10000001
Townsville 1 10001001
Learmonth 0 00000000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Norfolk Island 0 00000000
Culgoora 0 10000000
Gingin 0 00000000
Camden 0 11000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 01001000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 4 23211000
Mawson 2 22101000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 3111 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Apr 14 Quiet with possible Unsettled to Active periods.
21 Apr 7 Quiet
22 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 19 April and
is current for 19-20 Apr. Quiet conditions observed over the
last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next
3 days with possible Unsettled periods. Small chance of minor
coronal hole effects for 20Apr, which if they eventuate could
result in Unsettled to Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
21 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
22 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions observed at all latitudes over
the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for all latitudes
over the next 3 days with periods of disturbed ionospheric support
for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Apr 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Apr 10 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
21 Apr 15 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
22 Apr 15 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs were observed across the all Australian
regions over the last 24 hours. Continued MUF depressions of
20-40% are expected for all regions over the next 3 days with
disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 52500 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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