[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 April 16 issued 2336 UT on 20 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 21 09:36:47 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
only B-class events from region 2529 which has since rotated
off the visible disc. The solar wind speed remained relatively
unchanged and is currently ~365km/s at the time of this report.
The north-south component of the IMF Bz was southward during
the first half of the UT day, reaching a maximum of -7nT during
a sustained southward period between 04UT-10UT, after which Bz
has been predominantly northward. Solar wind speed is expected
to increase on 22Apr-23Apr due to the influence of a notable
north-south hemisphere extending coronal hole. Solar activity
is expected to range from Very Low to Low for the next 3 days
with a chance of C-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 01120000
Cocos Island 1 01111010
Darwin 3 11121011
Townsville 3 11121011
Learmonth 2 01121000
Alice Springs 1 00120001
Norfolk Island 1 00120000
Culgoora 2 1112000-
Gingin 1 01120000
Camden 1 01120000
Canberra 1 01120000
Launceston 3 01230000
Hobart 2 01130000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Apr :
Macquarie Island 4 00240000
Casey 4 23221000
Mawson 9 23232113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Apr 5 Quiet
22 Apr 5 Quiet
23 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions are expected for the next 2 days with possible Unsettled
to Active conditions for 23Apr due to expected arrival of a coronal
hole high speed solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
22 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
23 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions observed at all latitudes over
the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for all latitudes
over the next 3 days with periods of disturbed ionospheric support
for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Apr 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Apr 15 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
22 Apr 20 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
23 Apr 10 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 20 April
and is current for 20-22 Apr. Depressed MUFs were observed across
all Australian regions over the last 24 hours. Continued MUF
depressions of 20-40% are expected for all regions over the next
3 days with disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 32000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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