[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 07 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 8 09:30:31 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 90/34 95/41
COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day,
7 April, with three C-class flares. The strongest C1.4 flares
peaked at 07/0117UT and 07/0553 UT. Since the background x-ray
flux has gradually increased over the last 48 hours, the 2-day
outlook (8-9 April) is for low solar activity with C-class flares
likely. The 06/1524 UT CME with an estimated shock speed of 445
km/s has a very low probability of affecting earth. No other
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery
during the last 24 hrs. The solar wind has been steady around
~~380 km/s for most of the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF
turned from moderately northwards to strongly southward at 07/1800
UT, and remained strongly southwards for subsequent 6 hours.
Bt increased from 5 nT to 15 nT associated with this change in
IMF Bz conditions. The outlook for 8 April is for the solar winds
to start enhancing again in response to a recurrent southern
hemisphere coronal hole moving into a geoeffective location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 11110134
Cocos Island 6 -1110233
Darwin 6 11210133
Townsville 7 11211233
Learmonth 11 11121235
Alice Springs 5 11110133
Norfolk Island 5 10111133
Gingin 11 11110145
Camden 5 11110133
Canberra 4 00000133
Launceston 9 11111244
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Apr :
Macquarie Island 3 00011123
Casey 11 23320134
Mawson 37 32121238
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Melbourne 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2112 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Apr 18 Active
09 Apr 12 Unsettled
10 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were initially quiet to unsettled
and reached active levels towards the end of the UT day (7 April).
This is a combined effect of prolonged strongly southwards IMF
Bz starting from 07/1800 UT and stable solar wind speeds. The
Australian region DST dipped to a minimum of -42 nT at 07/2200
UT. The outlook for UT day 8 April is for geomagnetic conditions
to be mostly quiet to unsettled, but at times could reach active
levels. This is due to the expected enhancement in solar wind
speeds due to a small recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole
moving into a geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
09 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to
be strongly depressed in the high and mid-latitude regions today,
8 April, due to the geomagnetic storm in progress.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Apr 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Apr 15 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
09 Apr 25 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Apr 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation on UT day 7 April
were generally mildly depressed over all Australian regions.
Conditions are expected to be heavily depressed today, 8 Apr,
due to the geomagnetic storm in progress. HF conditions are expected
to recovery to mildly depressed to nearly monthly predicted values
by UT day 10 April. HF users are advices to use lower than the
monthly predicted frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 77900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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