[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 06 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 7 09:30:30 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Apr 08 Apr 09 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 92/37 95/41
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 6 April, with two weak C-class flares. The strongest flare
C1.4 peaked at 06/1652UT. There are currently three numbered
Earth-facing sunspot regions on the solar disk. The 2-day outlook
(7-8 April) is for very low solar activity with chance of C-class
flares. A CME was observed to have occurred around 06/1524 UT
in coronagraph imagery. More information on the possible impact
of this CME, if any, at Earth will be provide upon further investigation
and completion of our model runs. Preliminary investigation
suggest that this CME may be associated with eruptions from the
rear-side of the sun. The solar wind has been at the moderately
elevated level of ~400 km/s for most of the UT day, however,
is exhibiting a very weak declining trend. The Bz component of
the IMF remained near 0 nT, fluctuating between -5 nT and +5
nT. Bt was nearly constant, near 7 nT throughout the UT day.
The outlook for 7-8 April is for the solar winds to enhance slightly
in response to a small recurrent southern hemisphere coronal
hole moving into a geoeffective location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 21123211
Cocos Island 3 10122200
Darwin 4 21122201
Townsville 6 21223211
Learmonth 5 21123210
Alice Springs 7 21223301
Norfolk Island 3 10122200
Gingin 7 21123311
Camden 7 --123212
Canberra 3 10122200
Launceston 7 11223311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Apr :
Macquarie Island 9 11144300
Casey 16 34523311
Mawson 23 33333355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 2111 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
08 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled
during the last 24 hours (6 April). The outlook for UT day 7
April is for geomagnetic conditions to be mostly quiet to unsettled,
but at times could reach active levels. This is due to a small
recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole moving into a geoeffective
location on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
08 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to
be mildly depressed to near predicted monthly values during 7
Apr UT.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Apr 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Apr 41 Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr 35 Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr 41 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation on UT day 6 April
were generally mildly depressed over all Australian regions.
Conditions are expected to be mildly depressed to near predicted
monthly values today, 7 Apr. On UT day 8 Apr, the mid and high
latitude regions could experience slightly stronger MUF depressions
in response to the expected active geomagnetic conditions on
7 Apr. The changes in the maximum ionospheric densities are usually
delayed by several hours after the onset of active magnetic conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 74400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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