[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 05 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 6 09:30:26 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected Probable
10.7cm/SSN 83/24 84/26 87/30
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 5 April, with no C-class flares. There are currently three
numbered Earth-facing sunspot regions on the solar disk. The
2-day outlook (6-7 April) is for very low solar activity with
weak chance of smaller C-class flares. A CME was observed to
have occurred around 05/1248 UT, but appears to be triggered
by a rear-side event. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind has been nearly
constant, at the moderately elevated level of ~400 km/s during
the past 24 hrs. The Bz component of the IMF remained near 0
nT, fluctuating between -3 nT and +6 nT. Bt was nearly constant,
near 8 nT throughout the UT day. The outlook for 6-7 April is
for the solar winds to enhance slightly in response to a small
recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole moving into a geoeffective
location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 11012122
Cocos Island 3 01--1121
Darwin 2 11012011
Townsville 4 11013012
Learmonth 3 11002121
Alice Springs 2 01002021
Norfolk Island 3 10013012
Gingin 6 11003232
Camden 6 11213122
Canberra 1 00002011
Launceston 5 11013122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Apr :
Macquarie Island 6 00015010
Casey 11 23422132
Mawson 23 33212365
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2221 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
08 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled
during the last 24 hours (5 April). Similar geomagnetic conditions
are expected on UT day 6 April as the solar wind speeds are still
at moderate levels. On UT day 7 April, the geomagnetic active
at times could reach active levels. This is due to a small recurrent
southern hemisphere coronal hole moving into a geoeffective location
on the solar disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Apr Normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to
be mildly depressed to near predicted monthly values during 6
Apr UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Apr 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Apr 41 Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr 41 Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation on UT day 5 April
generally were mildly depressed in low latitude regions, and
near monthly predicted levels at the mid and high latitude stations.
Conditions are expected to be mildly depressed to near predicted
monthly values today, 6 Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 67800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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