[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 02 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 3 09:30:25 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 78/17
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 02 Apr UT and
it is expected to remain very low during the next 2 days. AR
2526 still contains the only visible sunspot group. Coronal Hole
(CH) 726 is rotating into the NW quadrant and another coronal
hole has begun traversing the central meridian in the Southern
Hemisphere. The frontal disturbance ahead of fast wind emanating
from CH 725 arrived at Earth during 2 Apr. The solar wind speed
increased from about 330 km/s at 07 UT to above 500 km/s during
21 UT. Fast wind is expected to continue impacting Earth during
3-4 Apr. The magnitude of the IMF peaked at 18 nT during 14 UT
and the Bz component reached -14 nT during 15 UT. The magnitude
of the IMF is presently about 7 nT and the Bz component is about
-5 nT. Further intervals of Bz southward conditions are likely
during 3 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A K
Australian Region 11 20003443
Cocos Island 11 21103442
Darwin 9 10003433
Townsville 10 21003433
Learmonth 12 30003443
Alice Springs 9 10003433
Norfolk Island 7 10002432
Gingin 15 30002454
Camden 9 10202433
Canberra 5 00002332
Launceston 12 11002543
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Apr :
Macquarie Island 16 10001643
Casey 14 32202533
Mawson 29 31002656
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Melbourne 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Apr 18 Active
04 Apr 12 Unsettled
05 Apr 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 1 April and
is current for 2-4 Apr. Geomagnetic conditions reached minor
storm levels (G1, Kp=5) during 15-18 UT on 2 Apr. Geomagnetic
conditions reached active levels (K=4) in the Australian region
during the same interval. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be unsettled to active during 3-4 Apr because of the ongoing
impact of fast solar wind.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to
be mildly depressed to depressed in the Northern and Southern
Hemisphere during 3-4 Apr UT.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Apr 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Apr 30 Mildly depressed to depressed
04 Apr 35 Mildly depressed
05 Apr 35 Mildly depressed
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 15 was issued
on 1 April and is current for 2-4 Apr. Conditions for HF radio
propagation were mildly depressed to depressed throughout the
Australian region during 02 Apr UT. Preliminary daily T indices
were about 25 at Darwin, Niue and Townsville. Localised enhancements
and depressions may be encountered throughout the Australian
region today, 3 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 53000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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