[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 03 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 4 09:30:29 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr:  Very low

Flares: B class flare

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Apr             05 Apr             06 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Probable
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 3 Apr UT and 
it is expected to remain very low during the next 2 days. AR 
2526 still contains the only prominent sunspot. Coronal Hole 
(CH) 726 is rotating through the NW quadrant and another coronal 
hole is traversing the central meridian in the Southern Hemisphere. 
The solar wind speed gradually decreased to about 400 km/s during 
3 Apr. Fast wind emanating from CH 726 may start impacting Earth 
today, 4 Apr. The magnitude of the IMF is currently about 9 nT 
and Bz has been fluctuating in the range -5 nT to +5 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22221313
      Cocos Island         6   22221212
      Darwin               7   22221312
      Townsville           9   22231313
      Learmonth           10   32222323
      Alice Springs        7   12221313
      Norfolk Island       6   22230212
      Gingin              11   32221324
      Camden               9   22231313
      Canberra             6   12221312
      Launceston          12   22332423    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    15   33352312
      Casey               13   34331223
      Mawson              40   44532357

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           20   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20   1001 2655     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active
05 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active
06 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 1 April and 
is current for 2-4 Apr. Geomagnetic conditions reached moderate 
storm levels (G2, Kp=6) during 21-24 UT on 2 Apr. The Australian 
region Dst index reached a minimum value of about -64 nT during 
this interval (minor storm). Geomagnetic activity decreased during 
3 Apr, but was at active levels for much of the day. Geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be unsettled with brief active intervals 
during 4-5 Apr because of further impacts of negative polarity 
coronal hole flows.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to 
be mildly depressed to near predicted monthly values during 4 
Apr UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Apr    48

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      50
Apr      50
May      49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Apr    45    Near predicted monthly values
05 Apr    45    Near predicted monthly values
06 Apr    45    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 15 was issued 
on 1 April and is current for 2-4 Apr. Conditions for HF radio 
propagation were mixed throughout the Australian region during 
3 Apr. They were mildly depressed at Darwin (preliminary daily 
T=35) and Niue (T=37), and depressed at Perth (T=23), but enhanced 
at Brisbane (T=71) and other stations. Conditions are expected 
to be mildly depressed to near predicted monthly values today, 
4 Apr.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 362 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:    70100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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