[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 April 16 issued 2330 UT on 01 Apr 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 2 10:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 APRIL 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr: Very low
Flares: B class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 1 Apr UT and
it is expected to remain very low during the next 2 days. AR
2526 still contains the only visible sunspot group. GONG H alpha
telescopes show an active solar prominence in profile off the
NE limb. Coronal Hole (CH) 725 has rotated into a geoeffective
location. The frontal disturbance ahead of fast wind emanating
from CH 725 is expected to arrive today 2 Apr, and will continue
to impact Earth during 3 Apr. CH 726 is traversing the central
meridian in the NE quadrant and fast wind arriving from this
source may arrive at Earth next week. The solar wind speed decreased
gradually from about 420 km/s to 360 km/s during 01 Apr. The
magnitude of the IMF is presently about 6 nT and the Bz component
fluctuated mostly between -3 nT and +4 nT during the past 12
hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 11000011
Cocos Island 1 10100010
Darwin 1 11000011
Townsville 1 11001011
Learmonth 2 21000020
Alice Springs 1 10000011
Norfolk Island 0 10000010
Gingin 1 20000020
Camden 2 12000011
Canberra 0 10000010
Launceston 1 11001011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 33210021
Mawson 6 41101022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 3310 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Apr 25 Active
03 Apr 18 Active
04 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region during 01 Apr UT. The planetary Kp index was 0 (naught)
during 03-18 UT. Conditions may reach minor storm (G1) levels
later today due to the arrival of the frontal disturbance ahead
of fast wind emanating from CH 725. Conditions may reach the
G2 level briefly during 2-3 Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Fair Fair Fair-poor
03 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to
be mildly depressed to depressed in the Northern and Southern
Hemisphere during 2-3 Apr UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Apr 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 50
Apr 50
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Apr 30 Mildly depressed to normal
03 Apr 25 Depressed to mildly depressed
04 Apr 35 Mildly depressed to normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mildly depressed
throughout the Australian region during 1 Apr UT. They are expected
to be mildly depressed to depressed throughout the Australian
region during 2-3 Apr. However, enhancements may also occur at
low latitude stations.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 65000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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