[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 31 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 1 10:30:33 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar: Very low
Flares: None.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Apr 02 Apr 03 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 81/22 81/22
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 31 Mar UT and
it is expected to remain very low today, 1 Apr. The sunspot number
is currently about 23. AR 2526 contains the only visible sunspot
group. Coronal Hole (CH) 725 is located near the equator and
has almost rotated into a geoeffective location. The frontal
disturbance ahead of fast wind emanating from CH 725 may arrive
late today 1 Apr, and will continue to impact Earth during 2-3
Apr. CH 726 has begun traversing the central meridian in the
NE quadrant. The solar wind speed decreased from about 500 km/s
to 400 km/s during 31 Mar. The solar wind speed will likely decrease
further before the arrival of the next episode of fast wind.
The magnitude of the IMF was about 3-4 nT and the Bz component
fluctuated mostly between -3 nT and +3 nT during the past 12
hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22121101
Cocos Island 2 21100100
Darwin 3 22111101
Townsville 4 22121111
Learmonth 4 21222110
Alice Springs 4 22211101
Norfolk Island 2 21111000
Culgoora 3 12121101
Gingin 3 21221100
Camden 4 12122111
Canberra 2 12111000
Melbourne 5 22222111
Launceston 5 22222111
Hobart 5 222220--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Mar :
Macquarie Island 5 12133000
Casey 10 34321211
Mawson 9 42312211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 3112 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Apr 12 Unsettled
02 Apr 20 Active
03 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region during 31 Mar UT and they are expected to be quiet for
most of today 1 Apr UT. However, conditions may reach active
levels late today due to the arrival of the frontal disturbance
ahead of fast wind emanating from CH 725. A minor storm (G1)
is likely during 2-3 April. Conditions may briefly reach the
G2 level.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to
be mildly depressed in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere during
1 Apr UT. Conditions may become depressed during 2-3 Apr due
to minor geomagnetic storming.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Mar 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Apr 45 Near predicted monthly values
02 Apr 45 Near predicted monthly values
03 Apr 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were mildly depressed
throughout the Australian region during 31 Mar UT. An exception
was Cocos Island where the local daily T index was 99 due to
a strong day night enhancement. Conditions are expected to be
mildly depressed throughout the Australian region today, 1 Apr.
They may become depressed during 2-3 Apr due to minor geomagnetic
storming.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 517 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 131000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list