[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 September 15 issued 2330 UT on 26 Sep 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 27 09:30:30 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Considerable optical and radio activity observed over
the UT day Sep 26 from AR2422 (S21E04), but no flares above the
C1 level. Other regions on the visible solar disk mostly stable,
although the large filament in the Southwest quadrant showed
some activity at its southern margin early in the UT day. Solar
wind speed declined from 500 to 400 km/s over the UT day. The
IMF Bz component was mostly mildly Northward with brief negative
excursions. Some dissipation of the sequence of coronal holes
around central meridian has been observed. Expect low solar activity
next three days with the chance of isolated C- to M-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 21100221
Cocos Island 3 11100221
Darwin 4 21100222
Townsville 4 21100222
Learmonth 5 21110231
Alice Springs 3 20000221
Norfolk Island 1 10000020
Culgoora 3 21000221
Gingin 4 11000331
Camden 3 21000221
Canberra 2 11000221
Melbourne 3 21100221
Launceston 4 22100221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 11000120
Casey 10 34320222
Mawson 12 32220153
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 2113 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed at all
latitudes. The anticipated coronal hole wind stream has not eventuated
and the suggested originating sequence of coronal holes appears
to be dissipating. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three
days with the possibility of isolated Unsettled intervals.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some recovery observed at all latitudes from the degraded
propagation conditions observed over the past week.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Sep 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
28 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
29 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions were observed during 26
September over the Australasian region due to low levels of ionising
radiation. There was continuing recovery in all regions over
the poor ionospheric support for HF of the previous week. Expect
mild depressions N and S Aus regions mainly local day and periods
of disturbance Antarctic region next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 467 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 125000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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