[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 September 15 issued 2330 UT on 27 Sep 2015

Mon Sep 28 09:30:05 EST 2015

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.9    1040UT  possible   lower  European
  C9.0    2101UT  probable   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 128/81

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Sep             29 Sep             30 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity on Sep 27 was moderate with a sequence 
of C- to M-class flares observed during the second half of the 
UT day. Most of the activity was produced by active regions 2422 
(S22W17) and 2423 (S10W57). The major events were an M1.9 flare 
in AR2423 at 1040UT, a C9.3 flare in AR2422 at 1958UT and an 
M1.0 flare in AR2422 at 2100UT. No significant CME's were observed 
although imagery is not yet available subsequent to the 21UT 
event. A solar filament eruption was observed in the NE quadrant 
after 1330UT. The large filament in the SW quadrant has shown 
significant movement particularly in the area adjacent to AR 
2423. Further C- to M-class activity is possible day one of the 
forecast period. Solar wind speed was steady at around 400 km/s. 
The IMF Bz component was mostly neutral with occasional brief 
excursions to +/- 5nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100011
      Cocos Island         1   11100010
      Darwin               2   11100012
      Townsville           3   12100022
      Learmonth            2   12100011
      Alice Springs        2   12100012
      Norfolk Island       1   01000020
      Culgoora             1   11100011
      Gingin               1   11100010
      Camden               1   11100011
      Canberra             1   01100011
      Melbourne            1   11100011
      Launceston           2   12100012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     1   01000011
      Casey               11   34420022
      Mawson               7   23211123

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           11   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   1001 2232     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Sep     8    Quiet
29 Sep     5    Quiet
30 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remained steady over the UT day 
Sep 27. The regional geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet at all 
latitudes. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair
29 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
30 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Sep    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      46
Sep      75
Oct      73

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Sep    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%
29 Sep    60    Near predicted monthly values
30 Sep    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 58 was issued on 27 
September and is current for 28 Sep only. Mildly degraded HF 
conditions were observed during 27 September over the Australasian 
region mainly local day. There was continuing recovery in all 
regions over the poor ionospheric support for HF of the previous 
week. Expect mild depressions N and S Aus regions mainly local 
day. Brief shortwave fadeouts possible local daylight hours Equatorial/N 
Aus regions day one.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 421 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:    76700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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