[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 September 15 issued 2330 UT on 25 Sep 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 26 09:30:47 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity on Sep 25 was low with only B- to minor
C-class flares observed. Periods of Type III and Type VI radio
noise observed throughout the day, with surging observed in regions
2420 and 2422. There is potential for isolated C- to M-class
flare activity next three days. A large solar filament in the
Southeast quadrant has shown some movement at its northern extremity.
Solar wind speed was mostly steady at around 450 km/s with the
anticipated high speed coronal hole wind stream not yet observed.
IMF Bz component was mostly neutral with a period of Southward
bias to -4nT 08-13UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 22123001
Cocos Island 4 22122101
Darwin 5 12123101
Townsville 5 12123111
Learmonth 7 22124002
Alice Springs 4 12123001
Norfolk Island 3 11122010
Culgoora 6 12133011
Gingin 5 22123002
Camden 5 12133001
Canberra 5 22133000
Melbourne 6 22233001
Launceston 7 23233001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Sep :
Macquarie Island 14 12155100
Casey 17 34533122
Mawson 23 34425135
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 42 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 3311 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
27 Sep 12 Unsettled
28 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: A high speed coronal hole wind stream anticipated on
Sep 25 has not yet eventuated. The observed geomagnetic field
was mostly Quiet at low to mid latitudes. Conditions at high
latitudes were Unsettled with occasional Active intervals. Expect
disturbed geomagnetic conditions day one, gradually declining
days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some recovery observed at all latitudes from the degraded
propagation conditions observed over the past week.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Sep 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Sep 55 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
27 Sep 55 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
28 Sep 50 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions were observed during 25
September over the Australasian region due to low levels of ionising
radiation. There was continuing recovery in all regions over
the poor ionospheric support for HF of the previous week. Elevated
geomagnetic activity is anticipated days one and two of the forecast
period which will negatively impact HF propagation conditions,
mainly in the Antarctic region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 76800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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