[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 September 15 issued 2330 UT on 24 Sep 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 25 09:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Sep 26 Sep 27 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity on Sep 24 was low with one minor C-class
flare observed at 2145 from AR 2422 (S20E28). A strong but narrow
SE-directed CME was observed after 23/22UT probably in association
with a filament eruption in the SE quadrant around 16 - 18UT.
A weaker SE-directed CME was observed after 24/05UT. Neither
CME is likely to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed was steady
at around 450 km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly neutral.
A coronal hole wind stream onset is anticipated on day one of
the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 22201121
Cocos Island 3 22101111
Darwin 4 22201112
Townsville 5 22202122
Learmonth 6 32101222
Alice Springs 4 22101112
Norfolk Island 3 22201020
Culgoora 4 22201121
Gingin 5 32101221
Camden 4 12201122
Canberra 3 12101111
Melbourne 4 22201121
Launceston 6 23201222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Sep :
Macquarie Island 3 22111110
Casey 11 33421222
Mawson 24 24322256
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Sep :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 43 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18 1133 3543
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Sep 12 Unsettled
26 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
27 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid
latitudes. Isolated Unsettled periods were observed at high latitudes.
Expect similar conditions initially on day one of the forecast
period. A coronal hole wind stream onset is anticipated later
on day one bringing Unsettled to Active geomagnetic conditions
for the next two to three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Fair Fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Fair Fair Normal-fair
26 Sep Fair Fair Normal-fair
27 Sep Fair Fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Moderately degraded HF conditions are expected to continue
over the next few days due to low levels of ionising solar radiation
and occasional geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Sep 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Sep 40 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
26 Sep 40 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
27 Sep 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderately degraded HF conditions were observed during
24 September over the Australasian region due to low levels of
ionising radiation. There was some recovery in all regions over
the poor ionospheric support for HF of the previous week. Elevated
geomagnetic activity is anticipated days one and two of the forecast
period which will negatively impact HF propagation conditions,
mainly in the Antarctic region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: 499 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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