[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 September 15 issued 2355 UT on 20 Sep 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 21 09:55:02 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0504UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.1 1804UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate for 20 September with an
M1.5 flare from region 2420 towards the north-east limb and a
long duration M2.1 flare from region 2415 in the south-west.
A type II radio sweep was observed in association with the M2
flare. A CME was also observed in association with this flare
and appears primarily directed to the south-west although a glancing
blow is possible late on 22 September. A solar filament centred
around S15E05 was observed to disappear between 06-07UT. There
was a weak CME observed in LASCO C2 difference imagery around
this time although it was slightly more west directed than expected.
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 0526UT in
association with the earlier than anticipated arrival of a CME
observed on 18 September. Solar wind speeds reached approximately
600 km/s and are presently above 500 km/s. Solar wind speeds
are expected to decline slowly before the arrival of the CME
observed today. Solar energetic proton fluxes have increased
in association with the M2.1 flare, however they are presently
below event threshold values.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 20 Sep : A K
Australian Region 21 23544432
Cocos Island 19 23533521
Darwin 19 23534422
Townsville 18 23534332
Learmonth 26 33544533
Alice Springs 20 23534432
Norfolk Island 17 23543321
Culgoora 20 23544332
Gingin 27 33554532
Camden 21 23544432
Canberra 21 23544432
Melbourne 21 23544432
Launceston 32 33655433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Sep :
Macquarie Island 40 23755531
Casey 22 44533333
Mawson 54 45754555
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 65 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 31
Planetary 44
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 11 3343 2012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
22 Sep 20 Active
23 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 42 was issued on 20 September
and is current for 20-21 Sep. The anticipated CME arrived earlier
than forecast at 0526UT. The IPS magnetometer data observed a
weak impulse of 20nT at 0604UT in association with the CME impact.
Active to minor storm periods were observed over the Australian
region following the CME impact with major to severe storms at
high latitudes. Mostly unsettled to active periods are expected
for 21 September with activity possibly increasing later in the
UT day of 22 September with the arrival of another CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
22 Sep Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
23 Sep Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected to continue over
the next few days due to low levels of ionising solar radiation
and renewed increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Sep 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Sep 25 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
22 Sep 35 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
23 Sep 30 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on 20 September
and is current for 20-21 Sep. Degraded HF conditions were observed
during 20 September over the Australian region due to low levels
of ionising radiation and renewed elevated geomagnetic activity
levels. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 7.8 p/cc Temp: 95400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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