[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 September 15 issued 2355 UT on 19 Sep 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 20 09:55:59 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low for 19 September with isolated
C-class flaring from regions 2415 and 2419. Low level solar activity
is expected for 20 September. The CME observed in association
with the long duration C2.6 flare from region 2415 is primarily
southward directed out of the ecliptic plane and is expected
to have only a glancing impact around 16UT on 20 September. Mildly
elevated solar wind speeds persisted during 19 September and
are expected to increase slightly during 20 September with the
impact of the CME. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 19/2045UT, which may be a precursor to the arrival
of the anticipated CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 22331012
Cocos Island 5 22221012
Darwin 5 22222012
Townsville 7 22332012
Learmonth 6 22232012
Alice Springs 6 22232012
Norfolk Island 7 22331012
Culgoora 7 22332012
Gingin 5 22231002
Camden 8 22341012
Canberra 8 22341002
Melbourne 8 22341002
Launceston 11 22351012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Sep :
Macquarie Island 16 22553011
Casey 10 24332102
Mawson 24 54443015
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Melbourne 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 3234 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Sep 20 Initially quiet to unsettled with active to minor
storm periods possible later in the UT day.
21 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
22 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region were
mostly quiet to unsettled with elevated activity at high latitudes.
Isolated active and minor storm periods at high latitudes are
possible with the anticipated glancing impact from a CME around
16UT on 20 September. Conditions should be mostly quiet to unsettled
prior to the CME arrival.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
21 Sep Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
22 Sep Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected to continue
over the next few days primarily due to low levels of ionising
solar radiation.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Sep 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed 30% to near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Sep 35 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
21 Sep 35 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
22 Sep 35 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions were observed during 19 September
over the Australian region due to low levels of ionising radiation
and sustained mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels. Similar
HF conditions are expected for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 49700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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