[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 September 15 issued 2331 UT on 21 Sep 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 22 09:31:57 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Sep 23 Sep 24 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: A number of impulsive C-class X-ray flares were observed
early in the UT day 22 Sep, all originating from active region
2420 (N10E64). The largest was a C8.8 level event peaking at
0518UT. No Earth directed CME's were observed over the period.
Solar wind speed remains elevated at 500 - 600 km/s. The IMF
Bz component was mostly moderately northward. Analysis of the
CME's observed on Sep 20 suggests a weak solar wind shock is
possible in the second half of the UT day Sep 22. Energetic proton
fluxes remain elevated also suggesting expected further solar
wind disturbance. Solar X-ray activity is expected to be low
with possible isolated C- to M-class events, mainly from AR 2420.
A sequence of Northern and Southern hemisphere coronal holes
is now at solar central meridian, although these appear to be
dissipating.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 32121201
Cocos Island 4 21121211
Darwin 7 32132202
Townsville 7 32132211
Learmonth 8 32232202
Alice Springs 6 32032201
Norfolk Island 5 32121111
Culgoora 5 32121201
Gingin 5 31121211
Camden 6 33121201
Canberra 5 32121201
Melbourne 6 33121201
Launceston 7 33121211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Sep :
Macquarie Island 5 32221100
Casey 20 55432212
Mawson 15 44433211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Sep :
Darwin NA
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 42 (Unsettled)
Melbourne 62 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 35 2465 5533
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
23 Sep 12 Unsettled
24 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 43 was issued on 21 September
and is current for 22 Sep only. Regional geomagnetic conditions
remained mostly Quiet on Sep 21. Although solar wind speed remains
elevated, the IMF Bz component maintained a moderately northward
bias for most of the UT day, limiting magnetic connection. Expect
mostly Quiet conditions initially on Sep 22. A mild solar wind
shock is anticipated later in the UT day bringing briefly elevated
geomagnetic conditions mainly at mid to high latitudes. Activity
levels should decline on days two and three of the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal-fair Normal-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Fair Fair Poor
23 Sep Fair Fair Poor
24 Sep Fair Fair Poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected to continue over
the next few days due to low levels of ionising solar radiation
and renewed increased geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Sep 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Sep 20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
23 Sep 20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
24 Sep 30 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on 21
September and is current for 21-22 Sep. IPS HF Communications
Warning 57 was issued on 21 September and is current for 22-24
Sep. Degraded HF conditions were observed during 21 September
over the Australian region due to low levels of ionising radiation
and renewed elevated geomagnetic activity levels. Similar HF
conditions are expected for the next few days. Antarctic region
may be particularly affected by anticipated elevated geomagnetic
activity later on day one.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 538 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 322000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list