[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 September 15 issued 2330 UT on 14 Sep 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 15 09:30:30 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Activity is expected to be very low to low for the next 3 days.
A large northern hemisphere coronal hole has kept the solar wind
speed elevated, ranging between 440 to 545 km/s. The wind speed
should remain elevated for the next few days, with further strengthening
likely from 17-Sep. Total IMF strength has declined from a peak
of 9 nT earlier to around 5 nT. The Bz component has been mostly
negative since 14/1330 UT, with a minimum of -7nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A K
Australian Region 11 12233422
Cocos Island 7 11122331
Darwin 8 12232322
Townsville 10 12133422
Learmonth 9 12233322
Alice Springs 9 12133322
Norfolk Island 8 12132322
Culgoora 9 12133322
Gingin 11 12223432
Camden 11 12233422
Canberra 10 12133422
Melbourne 12 12233432
Launceston 12 12233432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Sep :
Macquarie Island 23 12154632
Casey 17 34433332
Mawson 59 33245767
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne 46 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 2123 2433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Sep 15 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Sep 12 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region were
mostly quiet to unsettled, with a brief active period 15-18 UT.
Conditions reached storm levels in the Antarctic, most likely
due to an extended period of southward IMF Bz. Mostly quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected for 15-16 Sep, with more activity
likely from 17-Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
16 Sep Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
17 Sep Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Continuing MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
are expected over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Sep 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Sep 20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
16 Sep 20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
17 Sep 20 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 52 was issued on 14 September
and is current for 15-17 Sep. Significant MUF depressions and
degradations in HF conditions were observed over the last 24
hours in the Australian region, due to very low levels of ionising
radiation and increased geomagnetic activity. Similar HF conditions
are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 460 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 67200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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