[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 September 15 issued 2357 UT on 15 Sep 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 16 09:57:17 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during 15 September. Activity
is expected to be low for 16 September. A large northern hemisphere
coronal hole has kept the solar wind speed elevated, ranging
between approximately 450 to 550 km/s. The wind speed should
remain elevated for the next few days, with further strengthening
likely during 17 September due to an equatorial extension of
this large coronal hole. No earth directed CMEs were observed
during 15 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 15 Sep : A K
Australian Region 12 22244222
Cocos Island 7 22223212
Darwin 8 22233212
Townsville 13 32244222
Learmonth 13 22344222
Alice Springs 10 32233222
Norfolk Island 10 32233222
Culgoora 12 22244222
Gingin 13 22244223
Camden 12 22244222
Canberra 12 22244222
Melbourne 12 22244222
Launceston 15 32244323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Sep :
Macquarie Island 18 32354421
Casey 17 34433323
Mawson 33 54344346
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 16 2323 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Sep 12 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Sep 20 Mostly unsettled to active with minor storm periods
possible at high latitudes
18 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions over the Australian region were
mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods. Mostly
quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 16 September with
mildly increased activity expected for 17 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
17 Sep Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
18 Sep Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
COMMENT: Significantly degraded HF conditions are expected to
continue over the next few days primarily due to low levels of
ionising solar radiation.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Sep 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 50% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to degraded greater than 30%.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Sep 25 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
17 Sep 25 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
18 Sep 30 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 52 was issued on 14 September
and is current for 15-17 Sep. Significantly degraded HF conditions
were observed during 15 September over the Australian region
due to very low levels of ionising radiation and recently elevated
geomagnetic activity levels. Similar HF conditions are expected
for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 462 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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