[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 September 15 issued 2330 UT on 13 Sep 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 14 09:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 SEPTEMBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at Very Low levels over the
last 24 hours. As anticipated the solar wind stream showed some
weakening. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from around 500
km/s to around 450 km/s during the UT day today. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) mostly varied between +/-4 nT today,
staying southward for relatively longer periods of time. Solar
wind speed is expected to remain moderate on 14 and 16 September
with the possibility of some strengthening on 15 September due
to coronal hole effect. Very Low solar activity may be expected
for the next three days with some possibility of C-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: Mostly Quiet
to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 11133321
Cocos Island 4 11121220
Darwin 8 21133321
Townsville 9 21133322
Learmonth 7 11132330
Alice Springs 8 21133321
Norfolk Island 8 11133321
Culgoora 8 11133321
Camden 9 11133331
Gingin 9 11133331
Canberra 6 10132321
Melbourne 12 11243431
Launceston 15 21253431
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Sep :
Macquarie Island 26 10365531
Casey 12 23332332
Mawson 29 23233655
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Sep :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15 3344 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Sep 12 Quiet to Active
15 Sep 18 Unsettled to Active
16 Sep 12 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: As anticipated the high speed solar wind stream from
the coronal hole kept the geomagnetic activity enhanced today
(UT day 13 September) mostly up to unsettled and at times active
levels. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next
three days with the possibility of some further rise on 15 September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
15 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
16 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild to significant MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours due to very
low levels of ionising radiation and increased geomagnetic activity.
Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected from 14 to 16 September
due to expected continued enhancements in geomagnetic activity
levels and very low levels of ionising radiation during this
period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Sep 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 46
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Sep 20 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
15 Sep 15 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
16 Sep 20 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to significant MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours in AUS/NZ regions
due to very low levels of ionising radiation and increased geomagnetic
activity. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected from 14
to 16 September due to expected continued enhancements in geomagnetic
activity levels and very low levels of ionising radiation during
this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 543 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 164000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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