[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 October 15 issued 2332 UT on 29 Oct 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 30 10:32:08 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Oct 31 Oct 01 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: No significant X-ray activity observed over the UT day
Oct 29. Type II and Type IV radio sweeps were reported around
0220UT with an associated weak CME observed in subsequent LASCO
imagery. The event appears to have originated beyond the SW limb
and is unlikely to be geoeffective, although a minor solar wind
disturbance is possible. Solar wind energetic particle fluxes
became elevated following this event and will remain mildly elevated
day one of the forecast period. Other solar wind parameters remained
at nominal levels throughout the UT day. The IMF Bz component
was mostly neutral to mildly Northward with brief fluctuations
to mild Southward bias. An anticipated solar sector boundary
crossing on day one of the forecast period is expected to produce
mild to moderate solar wind disturbance persisting into days
two and three.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Cocos Island 1 11100001
Darwin 2 11111011
Townsville 3 11112012
Learmonth 3 11121002
Alice Springs 1 00011011
Norfolk Island 2 1011101-
Culgoora 11 2233--3-
Gingin 3 10112012
Camden 2 10111011
Canberra 1 00111001
Launceston 3 10212012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Oct :
Macquarie Island 3 00123000
Casey 7 32321012
Mawson 5 20121123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0100 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Oct 12 Unsettled
01 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field remained Quiet at all
latitudes. Anticipated solar wind disturbance on day one of the
forecast period is expected to result in Unsettled to occasionally
Active geomagnetic conditions persisting into days two and three
of the period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0540UT 29/10, Ended at 1445UT 29/10
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1530UT 29/10, Ended at 1610UT 29/10
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0420UT 29/10, Ended at 0925UT 29/10
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Oct 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Briefly depressed 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Darwin enhanced 15% local night.
Townsville depressed 15% around local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Oct 65 Near predicted monthly values
31 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
01 Nov 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values
with some variability Equatorial/N Aus regions. Expect similar
conditions next three days. Chance of disturbed periods Antarctic
region with elevated proton fluxes day one and occasional geomagnetic
activity days two and three.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 27000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list