[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 30 Oct 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 31 10:30:29 EST 2015 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 121/73


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Oct             01 Nov             02 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity increased over the UT day Oct 30. A significant 
number of low to mid C-class flares were produced by AR2443 (N05E54) 
including the largest of the period a C7 level event at 2016UT. 
AR2436 and AR2437, now both at the W limb, also produced isolated 
mid C-level flares. No significant CME's were observed in available 
LASCO imagery. Expect mostly low solar activity next three days 
but with an increased chance of M-class flares. Solar wind speed 
remained steady at 300-350 km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly 
moderately Northward biased. Some variability in solar wind velocity 
is anticipated over the next few days. Solar wind energetic particle 
fluxes have declined over the UT day and should return to nominal 
levels in the next 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12013322
      Cocos Island         4   12012211
      Darwin               6   12013312
      Townsville           8   22013323
      Learmonth            7   12113312
      Alice Springs        7   12013313
      Norfolk Island       6   -2013222
      Culgoora            11   32233---
      Gingin               7   11013323
      Camden               8   12013323
      Canberra             5   11003312
      Launceston          12   22114423    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    12   11025422
      Casey               19   45432223
      Mawson              27   53123526

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   0011 1012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Observed geomagnetic conditions were Quiet with Unsettled 
periods 12-18UT and 21-24UT at low to mid latitudes. At high 
latitudes conditions were Unsettled with isolated Active intervals. 
Expect Unsettled periods next three days due to anticipated mild 
solar wind disturbance.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0540UT 29/10, Ended at 1445UT 29/10
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1530UT 29/10, Ended at 1610UT 29/10
 and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0420UT 29/10, Ended at 0925UT 29/10

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Oct    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Townsville depressed 10% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      35
Oct      70
Nov      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Oct    65    Near predicted monthly values
01 Nov    65    Near predicted monthly values
02 Nov    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Observed MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values 
with some variability Equatorial/N Aus regions. Expect similar 
conditions next three days. Chance of disturbed periods Antarctic 
region with occasional geomagnetic activity days one and two.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.9E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 321 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    42200 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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