[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 October 15 issued 2330 UT on 28 Oct 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 29 10:30:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 OCTOBER 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low with only minor C-class flares
observed, mainly from AR2436 (N08W74) and AR2437 (S21W60). A
number of solar radio noise events were observed throughout the
UT day. A weak East-directed CME was observed after 27/2330UT.
There was a slow filament lift-off in the SE quadrant during
the first half of the UT day. Solar wind speed declined from
350 to 300 km/s. The IMF Bz component was neutral to North biased
with sustained periods of mild South bias 00-02 and 19-21UT.
Expect low solar activity next three days with a chance of isolated
C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 2 21000011
Townsville 1 11000010
Learmonth 0 11000000
Alice Springs 0 11000000
Norfolk Island 0 10000001
Culgoora 5 2211-2--
Gingin 0 01000000
Camden 1 11000011
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 11000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 7 34210101
Mawson 3 23100110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Oct 12 Unsettled
31 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field remained Quiet, with Unsettled
periods observed at high latitudes only 00-06UT. Expect similar
conditions day one of the forecast period. North and South polar
coronal holes and a small coronal hole in the NW quadrant may
become geoeffective over the next three days, bringing Unsettled
intervals.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Oct 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed 20% around local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Darwin depressed 20% around local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 35
Oct 70
Nov 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
30 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
31 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's mostly near or slightly below predicted
monthly values with some variability Equatorial/N Aus regions.
Expect similar conditions next three days. Chance of disturbed
periods Antarctic region with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 38300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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